Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 08:10

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 8 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TAJ DRAGON, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 2, with HEALTHY HAPPY second and BEAUTY JOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite CALIFORNIA SPANGLE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.21.98

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly 1.21.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng	A Atzeni	P C Ng	7	116 lb	6.8	2
2	3	HEALTHY HAPPY Closed strongly V/TT A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	8	117 lb	13.0	2
3	2	BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT J McDonald · A S Cruz	J McDonald	A S Cruz	4	123 lb	4.2	2-3/4
4	5	FANTASTIC TREASURE Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	2	117 lb	17.0	2-3/4
5	7	ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB K De Melo · D J Hall	K De Melo	D J Hall	6	117 lb	10.0	2-3/4
6	6	REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	5	116 lb	76.0	4
7	1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Led early TT H Bowman · A S Cruz	H Bowman	A S Cruz	1	135 lb	3.3	4-1/2
8	4	RED LION K Teetan · J Size	K Teetan	J Size	3	115 lb	3.4	7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick CALIFORNIA SPANGLE (21.5%) finished 7th — the winner TAJ DRAGON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	CALIFORNIA SPANGLE	21.5%	4.65	7	3.3
2	4	RED LION	20.2%	4.95	8	3.4
3	2	BEAUTY JOY	16.2%	6.18	3	4.2
4	8	TAJ DRAGON	14.1%	7.09	1	6.8
5	5	FANTASTIC TREASURE	9.4%	10.61	4	17.0
6	3	HEALTHY HAPPY	8.2%	12.21	2	13.0
7	7	ATULLIBIGEAL	7.7%	13.01	5	10.0
8	6	REWARDING TOGETHER	2.7%	36.41	6	76.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 68

PLACE

2 14.5

3 32

8 17.5

QUINELLA

3,8 388

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 72.5

2,8 47

3,8 111.5

FORECAST

8,3 776

TIERCE

8,3,2 3,015

TRIO

2,3,8 505

FIRST 4

2,3,5,8 1,217

QUARTET

8,3,2,5 32,814

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/3 75

3/8 338.5

← Race 6 Race 8 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99