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Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GLOBAL HARMONY Closed strongly CP 1.22.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · D A Hayes 1 2.4 1/2
2 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 3 10.0 1/2
3 0 LOST CHILD Closed strongly B Avdulla · C W Chang 13 10.0 2
4 0 HAPPY DAILY A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 11.0 3-1/4
5 0 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly B-/XB/TT1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 27.0 3-1/2
6 0 KAHOLO ANGEL TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 14 7.9 3-3/4
7 0 MIDORI BURLY Closed strongly XB Z Purton · P F Yiu 2 5.8 6
8 0 RAGNARR Led early TT- L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 89.0 7-3/4
9 0 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT B/TT A Badel · K L Man 5 9.6 8
10 0 I AM THE BOSS XB1 C L Chau · K W Lui 8 34.0 8-3/4
11 0 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B1/TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 53.0 9-1/4
12 0 SUGAR BALL CP/H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 11 175.0 10-1/4
13 0 MAJESTIC SPEED TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 214.0 11
14 0 SAVVY CHIC CP/TT K De Melo · F C Lor 9 99.0 14-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GLOBAL HARMONY, ridden by J McDonald and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with SWEET ENCOUNTER second and LOST CHILD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLOBAL HARMONY—2. SWEET ENCOUNTER+0.5L3. LOST CHILD+2L4. HAPPY DAILY+3.25L5. FLYING MOJITO+3.5L6. KAHOLO ANGEL+3.75L7. MIDORI BURLY+6L8. RAGNARR+7.75L9. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+8L10. I AM THE BOSS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MIDORI BURLY (31.4%) finished 7th — the winner GLOBAL HARMONY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MIDORI BURLY 31.4% 3.18 7
2 0 GLOBAL HARMONY 20.1% 4.97 1
3 0 KAHOLO ANGEL 13.2% 7.60 6
4 0 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 7.8% 12.75 9
5 0 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 6.5% 15.32 11
6 0 LOST CHILD 4.8% 20.73 3
7 0 I AM THE BOSS 4.0% 25.19 10
8 0 FLYING MOJITO 3.4% 29.05 5
9 0 SWEET ENCOUNTER 2.8% 35.33 2
10 0 SAVVY CHIC 2.1% 47.94 14
11 0 HAPPY DAILY 1.2% 81.19 4
12 0 SUGAR BALL 1.2% 84.36 12
13 0 RAGNARR 0.9% 110.53 8
14 0 MAJESTIC SPEED 0.4% 231.09 13
MIDORI BURLYGLOBAL HARMONY — wonKAHOLO ANGELCHIU CHOW SPIRITVIVA GRACIOUSNESSLOST CHILDI AM THE BOSSFLYING MOJITOSWEET ENCOUNTERSAVVY CHICHAPPY DAILYSUGAR BALLRAGNARRMAJESTIC SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24

PLACE

3 28.5

4 14.5

11 30.5

QUINELLA

3,4 151

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 58.5

3,11 139

4,11 65

FORECAST

4,3 200

TIERCE

4,3,11 1,432

TRIO

3,4,11 428

FIRST 4

3,4,11,14 1,008

QUARTET

4,3,11,14 11,106

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/3,4,11 27,898

7TH DOUBLE

8/3 170.5

8/4 311