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Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 08:45

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GLOBAL HARMONY, ridden by J McDonald and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with SWEET ENCOUNTER second and LOST CHILD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GLOBAL HARMONY Closed strongly CP 1.22.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · D A Hayes 1 2.4 1/2
2 3 SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly A Atzeni · J Size 3 10.0 1/2
3 11 LOST CHILD Closed strongly B Avdulla · C W Chang 13 10.0 2
4 14 HAPPY DAILY A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 11.0 3-1/4
5 7 FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly B-/XB/TT1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 27.0 3-1/2
6 6 KAHOLO ANGEL TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 14 7.9 3-3/4
7 9 MIDORI BURLY Closed strongly XB Z Purton · P F Yiu 2 5.8 6
8 13 RAGNARR Led early TT- L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 89.0 7-3/4
9 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT B/TT A Badel · K L Man 5 9.6 8
10 2 I AM THE BOSS XB1 C L Chau · K W Lui 8 34.0 8-3/4
11 5 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B1/TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 53.0 9-1/4
12 10 SUGAR BALL CP/H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 11 175.0 10-1/4
13 8 MAJESTIC SPEED TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 214.0 11
14 12 SAVVY CHIC CP/TT K De Melo · F C Lor 9 99.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLOBAL HARMONY2. SWEET ENCOUNTER+0.5L3. LOST CHILD+2L4. HAPPY DAILY+3.25L5. FLYING MOJITO+3.5L6. KAHOLO ANGEL+3.75L7. MIDORI BURLY+6L8. RAGNARR+7.75L9. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+8L10. I AM THE BOSS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MIDORI BURLY (31.4%) finished 7th — the winner GLOBAL HARMONY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MIDORI BURLY 31.4% 3.18 7
2 4 GLOBAL HARMONY 20.1% 4.97 1
3 6 KAHOLO ANGEL 13.2% 7.60 6
4 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 7.8% 12.75 9
5 5 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 6.5% 15.32 11
6 11 LOST CHILD 4.8% 20.73 3
7 2 I AM THE BOSS 4.0% 25.19 10
8 7 FLYING MOJITO 3.4% 29.05 5
9 3 SWEET ENCOUNTER 2.8% 35.33 2
10 12 SAVVY CHIC 2.1% 47.94 14
11 14 HAPPY DAILY 1.2% 81.19 4
12 10 SUGAR BALL 1.2% 84.36 12
13 13 RAGNARR 0.9% 110.53 8
14 8 MAJESTIC SPEED 0.4% 231.09 13
MIDORI BURLYGLOBAL HARMONY — wonKAHOLO ANGELCHIU CHOW SPIRITVIVA GRACIOUSNESSLOST CHILDI AM THE BOSSFLYING MOJITOSWEET ENCOUNTERSAVVY CHICHAPPY DAILYSUGAR BALLRAGNARRMAJESTIC SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 24

PLACE

3 28.5

4 14.5

11 30.5

QUINELLA

3,4 151

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 58.5

3,11 139

4,11 65

FORECAST

4,3 200

TIERCE

4,3,11 1,432

TRIO

3,4,11 428

FIRST 4

3,4,11,14 1,008

QUARTET

4,3,11,14 11,106

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,8/3,4,11 27,898

7TH DOUBLE

8/3 170.5

8/4 311