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Sha Tin · 2024-01-01 · 07:05

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-01-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DREAM PURSUER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with LUCKY PLANET second and GOLDEN RISE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite GOLDEN RISE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.23.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 DREAM PURSUER Closed strongly B 1.23.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man 6 14.0 1/2
2 12 LUCKY PLANET Closed strongly B K Teetan · D J Whyte 1 4.7 1/2
3 8 GOLDEN RISE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 7 2.9 3/4
4 7 DIVINE ERA H/TT K De Melo · K H Ting 2 8.5 2-1/4
5 10 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B1/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 8 26.0 3
6 9 RIVER VIEWS E C W Wong · T P Yung 4 4.9 4
7 1 FUN N GLORY TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 12.0 5-1/4
7 11 ISLAND BRIGHT Led early SR1 L Ferraris · P F Yiu 3 83.0 5-1/4
9 4 CHILLI BABA B A Atzeni · P F Yiu 10 17.0 6
10 3 LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 18.0 7
11 2 UP AND UP TT C L Chau · C S Shum 9 52.0 7-1/2
12 6 SHINE BRIGHT B1 M F Poon · C H Yip 12 103.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DREAM PURSUER2. LUCKY PLANET+0.5L3. GOLDEN RISE+0.75L4. DIVINE ERA+2.25L5. CAN'T GO WONG+3L6. RIVER VIEWS+4L7. FUN N GLORY+5.25L7. ISLAND BRIGHT+5.25L9. CHILLI BABA+6L10. LUCKY GOLD+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RIVER VIEWS (19.3%) finished 6th — the winner DREAM PURSUER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 RIVER VIEWS 19.3% 5.19 6
2 7 DIVINE ERA 13.4% 7.46 4
3 5 DREAM PURSUER 13.2% 7.57 1
4 8 GOLDEN RISE 13.1% 7.62 3
5 12 LUCKY PLANET 12.5% 8.03 2
6 4 CHILLI BABA 7.0% 14.35 9
7 1 FUN N GLORY 5.8% 17.37 7
8 10 CAN'T GO WONG 5.7% 17.45 5
9 3 LUCKY GOLD 3.8% 26.43 10
10 6 SHINE BRIGHT 3.0% 33.21 12
11 2 UP AND UP 1.9% 53.43 11
12 11 ISLAND BRIGHT 1.4% 70.69 7
RIVER VIEWSDIVINE ERADREAM PURSUER — wonGOLDEN RISELUCKY PLANETCHILLI BABAFUN N GLORYCAN'T GO WONGLUCKY GOLDSHINE BRIGHTUP AND UPISLAND BRIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 144

PLACE

5 31.5

8 14.5

12 17.5

QUINELLA

5,12 313

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 77.5

5,12 99.5

8,12 39.5

FORECAST

5,12 680

TIERCE

5,12,8 2,849

TRIO

5,8,12 313

FIRST 4

5,7,8,12 509

QUARTET

5,12,8,7 16,518

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/11/5 4,261

1/11/12 460

4TH DOUBLE

11/5 807.5

11/12 96.5