沙田 · 2024-04-14 · 09:49
第 11場
2024-04-14沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、K W Lui訓練的HOLY LAKE勝出，贏出3/4。STAR CONTACT獲得亞軍；FRANTANCK獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.9倍大熱門SUNSTRIDER跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HOLY LAKE 後段發力 B/XB 1.34.30 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 8.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | STAR CONTACT 後段發力 CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 12 | 72.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | FRANTANCK 早段領放 Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 14 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | SUNSTRIDER 後段發力 CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 3.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | POWERFUL WINGS 後段發力 B- A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 5 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | TALENTS AMBITION 後段發力 B/XB H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 8 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 13 | WINNING DATA B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 1 | 8.1 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | LOYAL BO BO SR K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 11 | 4.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | ACCOLADE START 後段發力 TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 88.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 7 | BEATO 後段發力 V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 10 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE 後段發力 B1 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 9 | 88.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | HUGE WAVE TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 13 | 45.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | SUMMIT IMPACT CP/TT- B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 2 | 221.0 | 14 |
| 14 | 2 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 5.9 | 17-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LOYAL BO BO | 19.0% | 5.26 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | SUNSTRIDER | 18.1% | 5.53 | 4 |
| 3 | 13 | WINNING DATA | 14.4% | 6.94 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | HOLY LAKE | 9.0% | 11.12 | 1 |
| 5 | 2 | FLAGSHIP WARRIOR | 8.6% | 11.59 | 14 |
| 6 | 1 | FRANTANCK | 8.0% | 12.42 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | BEATO | 7.3% | 13.74 | 10 |
| 8 | 14 | TALENTS AMBITION | 4.4% | 22.86 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | POWERFUL WINGS | 3.6% | 27.52 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | STAR CONTACT | 3.1% | 32.44 | 2 |
| 11 | 3 | HUGE WAVE | 2.3% | 43.95 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | ACCOLADE START | 1.2% | 86.21 | 9 |
| 13 | 11 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 0.6% | 176.42 | 11 |
| 14 | 4 | SUMMIT IMPACT | 0.5% | 220.69 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 88
PLACE
1 36
5 24.5
6 130.5
QUINELLA
5,6 2,260
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 135.5
1,6 807.5
5,6 576
FORECAST
5,6 3,869
TIERCE
5,6,1 34,657
TRIO
1,5,6 7,677
FIRST 4
1,5,6,9 6,478
QUARTET
5,6,1,9 196,665
全部彩池（另 4 項）
10TH DOUBLE
10/5 645
10/6 928.5
2ND TREBLE
8/10/5 5,814
8/10/6 9,513
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,10/1,5,6 2,608,855
SIX UP
6/6/6/8/10/5 2,284,774
6,11/6,9/4,6,8/3,8/2,10/5,6 56,184
9 [D A Hayes] —
4 [C Y Ho] —