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Sha Tin · 2024-04-14 · 09:49

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-14 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HOLY LAKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with STAR CONTACT second and FRANTANCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite SUNSTRIDER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.34.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB 1.34.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 8.8 3/4
2 6 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 12 72.0 3/4
3 1 FRANTANCK Led early Y L Chung · P C Ng 14 10.0 3/4
4 9 SUNSTRIDER Closed strongly CP Z Purton · D J Hall 4 3.9 2-1/4
5 12 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B- A Hamelin · P F Yiu 5 26.0 2-1/4
6 14 TALENTS AMBITION Closed strongly B/XB H Bentley · M Newnham 8 16.0 2-1/4
7 13 WINNING DATA B K Teetan · P F Yiu 1 8.1 3
8 8 LOYAL BO BO SR K C Leung · F C Lor 11 4.7 3-1/2
9 10 ACCOLADE START Closed strongly TT A Badel · C S Shum 6 88.0 4
10 7 BEATO Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 10 11.0 4-1/2
11 11 BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B1 M Chadwick · C H Yip 9 88.0 4-3/4
12 3 HUGE WAVE TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 13 45.0 6-1/2
13 4 SUMMIT IMPACT CP/TT- B Thompson · J Richards 2 221.0 14
14 2 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 3 5.9 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HOLY LAKE2. STAR CONTACT+0.75L3. FRANTANCK+0.75L4. SUNSTRIDER+2.25L5. POWERFUL WINGS+2.25L6. TALENTS AMBITION+2.25L7. WINNING DATA+3L8. LOYAL BO BO+3.5L9. ACCOLADE START+4L10. BEATO+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LOYAL BO BO (19.0%) finished 8th — the winner HOLY LAKE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 LOYAL BO BO 19.0% 5.26 8
2 9 SUNSTRIDER 18.1% 5.53 4
3 13 WINNING DATA 14.4% 6.94 7
4 5 HOLY LAKE 9.0% 11.12 1
5 2 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 8.6% 11.59 14
6 1 FRANTANCK 8.0% 12.42 3
7 7 BEATO 7.3% 13.74 10
8 14 TALENTS AMBITION 4.4% 22.86 6
9 12 POWERFUL WINGS 3.6% 27.52 5
10 6 STAR CONTACT 3.1% 32.44 2
11 3 HUGE WAVE 2.3% 43.95 12
12 10 ACCOLADE START 1.2% 86.21 9
13 11 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 0.6% 176.42 11
14 4 SUMMIT IMPACT 0.5% 220.69 13
LOYAL BO BOSUNSTRIDERWINNING DATAHOLY LAKE — wonFLAGSHIP WARRIORFRANTANCKBEATOTALENTS AMBITIONPOWERFUL WINGSSTAR CONTACTHUGE WAVEACCOLADE STARTBRIGHT INHERITANCESUMMIT IMPACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 88

PLACE

1 36

5 24.5

6 130.5

QUINELLA

5,6 2,260

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 135.5

1,6 807.5

5,6 576

FORECAST

5,6 3,869

TIERCE

5,6,1 34,657

TRIO

1,5,6 7,677

FIRST 4

1,5,6,9 6,478

QUARTET

5,6,1,9 196,665

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

10/5 645

10/6 928.5

2ND TREBLE

8/10/5 5,814

8/10/6 9,513

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,10/1,5,6 2,608,855

SIX UP

6/6/6/8/10/5 2,284,774

6,11/6,9/4,6,8/3,8/2,10/5,6 56,184

9 [D A Hayes]

4 [C Y Ho]