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Sha Tin · 2024-04-14 · 06:32

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KING MILES, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with LUCY IN THE SKY second and HAYDAY third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 KING MILES 1.09.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K W Lui 10 2.3 1
2 6 LUCY IN THE SKY H K Teetan · Y S Tsui 9 7.6 1
3 12 HAYDAY P-/H/XB M Chadwick · P F Yiu 1 12.0 1-1/4
4 9 GLORY ELITE H K C Leung · K H Ting 8 12.0 1-1/2
5 8 SEA SAPPHIRE PC A Badel · P C Ng 3 7.7 2-1/4
6 4 ENJOY GOLF C L Chau · F C Lor 5 11.0 2-1/4
7 10 TALENTS SUPREMO TT M F Poon · W K Mo 7 18.0 3
8 3 FUN N GLORY TT L Hewitson · W Y So 4 10.0 4-1/4
9 7 SUNDAY'S SERENADE B1/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards 12 40.0 5-1/4
10 1 WIDE BLUE YONDER B/TT Y L Chung · D A Hayes 6 45.0 7-1/2
11 2 ACE ONE V-/B2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 2 30.0 9
11 LUCKY QUALITY V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 27.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING MILES2. LUCY IN THE SKY+1L3. HAYDAY+1.25L4. GLORY ELITE+1.5L5. SEA SAPPHIRE+2.25L6. ENJOY GOLF+2.25L7. TALENTS SUPREMO+3L8. FUN N GLORY+4.25L9. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+5.25L10. WIDE BLUE YONDER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KING MILES (22.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 KING MILES 22.4% 4.46 1
2 4 ENJOY GOLF 13.2% 7.60 6
3 10 TALENTS SUPREMO 10.3% 9.70 7
4 3 FUN N GLORY 9.2% 10.91 8
5 6 LUCY IN THE SKY 9.0% 11.06 2
6 1 WIDE BLUE YONDER 8.6% 11.60 10
7 8 SEA SAPPHIRE 8.1% 12.38 5
8 12 HAYDAY 7.9% 12.64 3
9 9 GLORY ELITE 5.8% 17.16 4
10 7 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 4.1% 24.59 9
11 2 ACE ONE 1.4% 70.91 11
KING MILES — wonENJOY GOLFTALENTS SUPREMOFUN N GLORYLUCY IN THE SKYWIDE BLUE YONDERSEA SAPPHIREHAYDAYGLORY ELITESUNDAY'S SERENADEACE ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 23

PLACE

5 10.1

6 26

12 35

QUINELLA

5,6 106.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 47.5

5,12 54.5

6,12 189.5

FORECAST

5,6 167

TIERCE

5,6,12 1,321

TRIO

5,6,12 388

FIRST 4

5,6,9,12 515

QUARTET

5,6,12,9 6,437

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

9/3/5 229

9/3/6 210

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,10/5,6,12 2,435

4TH DOUBLE

3/5 65

3/6 44