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Sha Tin · 2024-04-14 · 11:01

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C 10 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-14 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BABY CRYSTAL, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with STELLAR EXPRESS second and CHEVAL VALIANT third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BABY CRYSTAL B/TT 0.55.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 2.7 N
2 4 STELLAR EXPRESS Z Purton · J Size 5 2.7 N
3 10 CHEVAL VALIANT B/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 9 5.5 1-1/2
4 5 NORTHERN BEACHES CP1 L Hewitson · W Y So 6 10.0 2-1/4
5 1 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B E C W Wong · P F Yiu 3 18.0 2-3/4
6 2 FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 2 24.0 3-1/4
7 8 JOLLY RULER TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 8 18.0 5-1/4
8 9 SUPERSONIC XB B Thompson · M Newnham 7 78.0 6-1/4
9 7 BULB EMPEROR B1 H Bentley · P C Ng 1 39.0 7-3/4
10 6 TELECOM POWER H1 M F Poon · Y S Tsui 4 98.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BABY CRYSTAL2. STELLAR EXPRESS+0.05L3. CHEVAL VALIANT+1.5L4. NORTHERN BEACHES+2.25L5. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+2.75L6. FLYING HIGH+3.25L7. JOLLY RULER+5.25L8. SUPERSONIC+6.25L9. BULB EMPEROR+7.75L10. TELECOM POWER+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STELLAR EXPRESS (41.6%) finished 2nd — the winner BABY CRYSTAL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 STELLAR EXPRESS 41.6% 2.40 2
2 3 BABY CRYSTAL 14.7% 6.80 1
3 5 NORTHERN BEACHES 12.8% 7.79 4
4 10 CHEVAL VALIANT 7.4% 13.48 3
5 1 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 5.3% 18.75 5
6 7 BULB EMPEROR 5.3% 18.84 9
7 2 FLYING HIGH 4.9% 20.29 6
8 8 JOLLY RULER 4.4% 22.86 7
9 6 TELECOM POWER 2.9% 34.31 10
10 9 SUPERSONIC 0.6% 166.65 8
STELLAR EXPRESSBABY CRYSTAL — wonNORTHERN BEACHESCHEVAL VALIANTPLEASANT ENDEAVORBULB EMPERORFLYING HIGHJOLLY RULERTELECOM POWERSUPERSONIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 27.5

PLACE

3 11.5

4 12.5

10 18.5

QUINELLA

3,4 34

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 18

3,10 28.5

4,10 36.5

FORECAST

3,4 68

TIERCE

3,4,10 258

TRIO

3,4,10 67

FIRST 4

3,4,5,10 85

QUARTET

3,4,10,5 906

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

9/3 84

9/4 16