Sha Tin · 2024-04-14 · 11:01

Race 1

Griffin GOOD 1000m Course C 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-14 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD going. THUNDER BLINK, ridden by C L Chau and trained by K H Ting, won by 1, with LA FORZA second and SANTORINI third. The 1.4 favourite LA FORZA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.42

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	THUNDER BLINK 0.56.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · K H Ting	C L Chau	K H Ting	4	124 lb	8.9	1
2	7	LA FORZA TT1 Z Purton · J Richards	Z Purton	J Richards	1	121 lb	1.4	1
3	4	SANTORINI K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	2	126 lb	9.5	2
4	2	CALIFORNIA MOXIE TT1 B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	5	126 lb	14.0	2-3/4
5	8	RUN YES RUN CP1 M Chadwick · C W Chang	M Chadwick	C W Chang	3	121 lb	29.0	3-1/2
6	3	CALIFORNIA STAR TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	8	121 lb	8.6	4
7	5	SKYEY BLUE B1/H1 M F Poon · K L Man	M F Poon	K L Man	6	124 lb	52.0	5
8	1	CALIFORNIA BANNER TT1 L Ferraris · W K Mo	L Ferraris	W K Mo	9	126 lb	42.0	5-1/4
9	9	SUPREME WINNER B Thompson · C H Yip	B Thompson	C H Yip	7	121 lb	47.0	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick LA FORZA (28.4%) finished 2nd — the winner THUNDER BLINK was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	LA FORZA	28.4%	3.52	2	1.4
2	4	SANTORINI	17.7%	5.64	3	9.5
3	2	CALIFORNIA MOXIE	12.3%	8.10	4	14.0
4	3	CALIFORNIA STAR	10.9%	9.16	6	8.6
5	6	THUNDER BLINK	10.4%	9.60	1	8.9
6	1	CALIFORNIA BANNER	7.9%	12.71	8	42.0
7	8	RUN YES RUN	5.5%	18.15	5	29.0
8	9	SUPREME WINNER	3.6%	27.78	9	47.0
9	5	SKYEY BLUE	3.2%	31.39	7	52.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 89

PLACE

4 17

6 19.5

7 10.1

QUINELLA

6,7 49

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 51

4,7 23

6,7 24

FORECAST

6,7 189

TIERCE

6,7,4 643

TRIO

4,6,7 66

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 105

QUARTET

6,7,4,2 3,135

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99