Sha Tin · 2024-04-14 · 11:01

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 7 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-14 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY ENCOUNTER, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-3/4, with GORGEOUS WIN second and DROMBEG BANNER third. The 2.5 favourite GORGEOUS WIN finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.56

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	LUCKY ENCOUNTER H- 1.08.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	2	119 lb	3.5	1-3/4
2	8	GORGEOUS WIN TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	3	117 lb	2.5	1-3/4
3	3	DROMBEG BANNER K Teetan · P C Ng	K Teetan	P C Ng	4	128 lb	7.4	2
4	7	SUPREME LUCKY TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	1	117 lb	5.7	3
5	2	ATULLIBIGEAL B/H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	7	134 lb	7.0	3-1/2
6	5	WE ARE HERO V/TT L Hewitson · K L Man	L Hewitson	K L Man	6	124 lb	57.0	4-1/4
7	1	BUNDLE OF CHARM P- B Avdulla · J Size	B Avdulla	J Size	5	135 lb	15.0	5
—	4	RAGING BLIZZARD Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	—	124 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick LUCKY ENCOUNTER (27.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	LUCKY ENCOUNTER	27.7%	3.61	1	3.5
2	2	ATULLIBIGEAL	18.4%	5.45	5	7.0
3	8	GORGEOUS WIN	18.2%	5.51	2	2.5
4	3	DROMBEG BANNER	12.4%	8.04	3	7.4
5	1	BUNDLE OF CHARM	9.9%	10.15	7	15.0
6	7	SUPREME LUCKY	6.9%	14.52	4	5.7
7	5	WE ARE HERO	6.6%	15.12	6	57.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 35

PLACE

3 17.5

6 15.5

8 11

QUINELLA

6,8 46

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 34

3,8 32

6,8 22

FORECAST

6,8 101

TIERCE

6,8,3 407

TRIO

3,6,8 87

FIRST 4

3,6,7,8 65

QUARTET

6,8,3,7 1,132

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

6/4,8 208.5

6/6 1,167.5

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