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Sha Tin · 2024-04-14 · 09:14

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-14 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. BEAUTY FIT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by N, with GOLDEN ARTIE second and ORIENTAL SMOKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite AEROINVINCIBLE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.21.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P 1.21.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size 3 8.9 N
2 2 GOLDEN ARTIE Closed strongly H-/XB B Thompson · P F Yiu 7 19.0 N
3 8 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 8 49.0 3/4
4 12 MY FLYING ANGEL Led early CP1 A Badel · F C Lor 1 14.0 3/4
5 14 FOOLISH HEART Closed strongly V K C Leung · C W Chang 6 9.6 1-1/2
6 6 HELENE WARRIOR Closed strongly TT1 Y L Chung · C S Shum 13 30.0 2
7 13 AEROINVINCIBLE SR/TT1 A Atzeni · P C Ng 5 2.8 2
8 1 AMAZING VICTORY TT H Bowman · W Y So 2 4.6 2-1/4
9 7 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE Closed strongly H/XB L Ferraris · K H Ting 12 23.0 2-1/4
10 11 ONLY U CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 4 23.0 3-1/2
11 4 KARMA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 14 10.0 3-1/2
12 3 ENTERPRISE ATTACK K Teetan · K W Lui 11 19.0 4-1/4
13 5 LEEDOX B/TT K De Melo · M Newnham 9 99.0 6-1/2
14 9 YOUNG BRILLIANT M Chadwick · C H Yip 10 104.0 11-3/4
0 SINBA Z Purton · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY FIT2. GOLDEN ARTIE+0.05L3. ORIENTAL SMOKE+0.75L4. MY FLYING ANGEL+0.75L5. FOOLISH HEART+1.5L6. HELENE WARRIOR+2L7. AEROINVINCIBLE+2L8. AMAZING VICTORY+2.25L9. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+2.25L10. ONLY U+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick AMAZING VICTORY (13.6%) finished 8th — the winner BEAUTY FIT was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AMAZING VICTORY 13.6% 7.35 8
2 13 AEROINVINCIBLE 12.7% 7.89 7
3 12 MY FLYING ANGEL 11.3% 8.88 4
4 4 KARMA 10.6% 9.43 11
5 3 ENTERPRISE ATTACK 9.9% 10.12 12
6 11 ONLY U 7.8% 12.86 10
7 14 FOOLISH HEART 7.2% 13.97 5
8 10 BEAUTY FIT 5.6% 17.94 1
9 7 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 5.3% 18.92 9
10 8 ORIENTAL SMOKE 4.4% 22.52 3
11 6 HELENE WARRIOR 4.3% 23.18 6
12 2 GOLDEN ARTIE 3.8% 26.47 2
13 9 YOUNG BRILLIANT 2.2% 45.97 14
14 5 LEEDOX 1.5% 67.54 13
AMAZING VICTORYAEROINVINCIBLEMY FLYING ANGELKARMAENTERPRISE ATTACKONLY UFOOLISH HEARTBEAUTY FIT — wonARMOUR WAR EAGLEORIENTAL SMOKEHELENE WARRIORGOLDEN ARTIEYOUNG BRILLIANTLEEDOX

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 89

PLACE

2 59.5

8 122.5

10 30

QUINELLA

2,10 1,102

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 1,289.5

2,10 325.5

8,10 633.5

FORECAST

10,2 2,215

TIERCE

10,2,8 55,051

TRIO

2,8,10 12,219

FIRST 4

2,8,10,12 41,721

QUARTET

10,2,8,12 841,912

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

8/2 112

8/10 998