沙田 · 2024-04-28 · 13:30
第 4場
2024-04-28沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為YIELDING。由J McDonald策騎、D A Hayes訓練的RUBYLOT勝出，贏出3-3/4。CIRCUIT FIERY獲得亞軍；GENEVA獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.8倍大熱門GENEVA跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RUBYLOT 後段發力 1.22.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 2 | 6.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 2 | 4 | CIRCUIT FIERY 後段發力 Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 5 | 4.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | GENEVA B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 12 | 2.8 | 4 |
| 4 | 8 | FORERUNNER 後段發力 TT A Hamelin · W K Mo | A Hamelin | W K Mo | 13 | 22.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | FAST AS ROCKET 後段發力 TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 4 | 195.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | BEAUTY ALLIANCE 後段發力 B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 44.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 13 | LUCKY FIONN B1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 6 | 9.8 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | FAMILY FORTUNE 後段發力 TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 39.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | ALWAYS FLUKE CP/H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | MISSION VOICE L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 8 | 16.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | GALE SAGA 早段領放 B Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 14 | 32.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 14 | TELECOM BULLET B/TT B Thompson · Y S Tsui | B Thompson | Y S Tsui | 1 | 136.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 13 | 2 | DREAM PURSUER B H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 10 | 8.3 | 18-3/4 |
| 14 | 7 | MASTER STROKE TT- A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 9 | 138.0 | 49-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GENEVA | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | CIRCUIT FIERY | 16.7% | 6.00 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | RUBYLOT | 13.0% | 7.69 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | BEAUTY ALLIANCE | 11.4% | 8.80 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | DREAM PURSUER | 9.1% | 11.03 | 13 |
| 6 | 3 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 6.9% | 14.57 | 9 |
| 7 | 13 | LUCKY FIONN | 5.8% | 17.24 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | MISSION VOICE | 5.0% | 19.98 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | FORERUNNER | 3.2% | 31.41 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | FAMILY FORTUNE | 2.9% | 33.91 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | GALE SAGA | 1.4% | 71.07 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | MASTER STROKE | 0.9% | 108.02 | 14 |
| 13 | 10 | FAST AS ROCKET | 0.8% | 123.80 | 5 |
| 14 | 14 | TELECOM BULLET | 0.3% | 292.70 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 61.5
PLACE
1 19
4 18.5
5 15
QUINELLA
1,4 159
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 56.5
1,5 35.5
4,5 37.5
FORECAST
1,4 332
TIERCE
1,4,5 927
TRIO
1,4,5 130
FIRST 4
1,4,5,8 542
QUARTET
1,4,5,8 12,130
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,8/1,4,5 4,635
3RD DOUBLE
3/1 223.5
3/4 22