沙田 · 2024-04-28 · 13:30
第 1場
2024-04-28沙田第1場，Class 4，途程2000米，跑道評為YIELDING。由B Thompson策騎、W Y So訓練的LEGION OF MERIT勝出，贏出1-1/4。ROMANTIC FANTASY獲得亞軍；ESCAPE ROUTE獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。4.3倍大熱門SHARPEN BRIGHT跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | LEGION OF MERIT 一路領先 B/TT 2.03.41 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） B Thompson · W Y So | B Thompson | W Y So | 3 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | ROMANTIC FANTASY 後段發力 B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 1 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 14 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | DARCI JOY 後段發力 B/TT J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 11 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SPECIAL HEDGE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 45.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 XB E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 6 | 29.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT 後段發力 B2 K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 7 | 4.3 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | GOLD TACK B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 4 | 5.3 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | REACH GOAL TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 2 | 4.7 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | JUMBO FORTUNE 後段發力 PC/XB B Shinn · P C Ng | B Shinn | P C Ng | 9 | 28.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SUNNY BABY 後段發力 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 12 | 130.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | MISTER DAPPER H/SR/XB A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | CHATEAU LE PECHE B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 13 | 15.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | WINNING STEPS H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 10 | 17.0 | 14-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | REACH GOAL | 26.5% | 3.77 | 9 |
| 2 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 13.3% | 7.50 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | GOLD TACK | 8.2% | 12.16 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | DARCI JOY | 6.5% | 15.35 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING STEPS | 6.1% | 16.26 | 14 |
| 6 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 5.6% | 17.87 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 5.5% | 18.13 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | ROMANTIC FANTASY | 5.3% | 18.87 | 2 |
| 9 | 14 | LEGION OF MERIT | 4.8% | 20.65 | 1 |
| 10 | 5 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 4.8% | 20.92 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | MISTER DAPPER | 4.4% | 22.87 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 3.3% | 30.21 | 5 |
| 13 | 9 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 3.3% | 30.36 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | SUNNY BABY | 2.2% | 44.48 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 116
PLACE
1 54.5
2 34
14 29
QUINELLA
2,14 705.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 355.5
1,14 339.5
2,14 210.5
FORECAST
14,2 1,366
TIERCE
14,2,1 28,431
TRIO
1,2,14 3,944
FIRST 4
1,2,3,14 9,725
QUARTET
14,2,1,3 253,429