沙田 · 2024-04-28 · 13:30
第 6場
2024-04-28沙田第6場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為YIELDING。由K Teetan策騎、F C Lor訓練的TOP GUN勝出，贏出N。SECOND TO NONE獲得亞軍；LOST CHILD獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。4.0倍大熱門KA YING VICTORY跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TOP GUN 一路領先 1.23.30 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 14 | 6.4 | N |
| 2 | 10 | SECOND TO NONE L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 2 | 4.8 | N |
| 3 | 14 | LOST CHILD 後段發力 B- B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 5 | 34.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 3 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | SUNLIGHT POWER 後段發力 CP/H/XB H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 4 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | KA YING VICTORY Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 4.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | NORTHERN BEACHES CP D Lane · W Y So | D Lane | W Y So | 6 | 18.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | BEAUTY CRESCENT TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 10 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 12 | PRINCIPLED 後段發力 TT1 M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 1 | 167.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | TURIN STARSPANGLED A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 13 | 245.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 2 | ROCKET SPADE XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 11 | 21.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | HYPER DRAGON BALL 後段發力 TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 36.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 6 | HARMONY GALAXY TT1 J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 7 | 40.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT L Morris · D A Hayes | L Morris | D A Hayes | 8 | 46.0 | 12-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | KA YING VICTORY | 19.4% | 5.15 | 6 |
| 2 | 10 | SECOND TO NONE | 18.5% | 5.40 | 2 |
| 3 | 13 | SUNLIGHT POWER | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | HARMONY GALAXY | 6.3% | 15.81 | 13 |
| 5 | 3 | TOP GUN | 5.7% | 17.50 | 1 |
| 6 | 8 | BEAUTY FIT | 5.2% | 19.16 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | NORTHERN BEACHES | 4.8% | 20.79 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 4.6% | 21.85 | 14 |
| 9 | 1 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 4.4% | 22.63 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | ROCKET SPADE | 4.2% | 23.80 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | HYPER DRAGON BALL | 3.7% | 26.74 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | PRINCIPLED | 2.3% | 43.20 | 9 |
| 13 | 14 | LOST CHILD | 1.8% | 56.51 | 3 |
| 14 | 4 | TURIN STARSPANGLED | 1.0% | 100.91 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 64.5
PLACE
3 24.5
10 19
14 91
QUINELLA
3,10 176
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 70
3,14 376
10,14 243.5
FORECAST
3,10 402
TIERCE
3,10,14 10,428
TRIO
3,10,14 2,055
FIRST 4
3,8,10,14 3,865
QUARTET
3,10,14,8 88,141
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,9/3,10,14 42,482
5TH DOUBLE
5/3 535
5/10 49.5
TRIPLE TRIO
1,4,5/1,5,9/3,10,14 1,785,427
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,4,5/1,5,9/Any Combination 292