Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:30
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on YIELDING going. LEGION OF MERIT, ridden by B Thompson and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with ROMANTIC FANTASY second and ESCAPE ROUTE third. The winner led throughout. The 4.3 favourite SHARPEN BRIGHT finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | LEGION OF MERIT Wire to wire B/TT 2.03.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · W Y So | B Thompson | W Y So | 3 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | ROMANTIC FANTASY Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 1 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 14 | 18.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT J McDonald · P F Yiu | J McDonald | P F Yiu | 11 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | SPECIAL HEDGE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 45.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 6 | 29.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B2 K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 7 | 4.3 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | GOLD TACK B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 4 | 5.3 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | REACH GOAL TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 2 | 4.7 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly PC/XB B Shinn · P C Ng | B Shinn | P C Ng | 9 | 28.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 12 | 130.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 4 | MISTER DAPPER H/SR/XB A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 8 | 14.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 13 | 9 | CHATEAU LE PECHE B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 13 | 15.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | WINNING STEPS H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 10 | 17.0 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | REACH GOAL | 26.5% | 3.77 | 9 |
| 2 | 7 | SHARPEN BRIGHT | 13.3% | 7.50 | 7 |
| 3 | 12 | GOLD TACK | 8.2% | 12.16 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | DARCI JOY | 6.5% | 15.35 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING STEPS | 6.1% | 16.26 | 14 |
| 6 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 5.6% | 17.87 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 5.5% | 18.13 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | ROMANTIC FANTASY | 5.3% | 18.87 | 2 |
| 9 | 14 | LEGION OF MERIT | 4.8% | 20.65 | 1 |
| 10 | 5 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 4.8% | 20.92 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | MISTER DAPPER | 4.4% | 22.87 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 3.3% | 30.21 | 5 |
| 13 | 9 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 3.3% | 30.36 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | SUNNY BABY | 2.2% | 44.48 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
14 116
PLACE
1 54.5
2 34
14 29
QUINELLA
2,14 705.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 355.5
1,14 339.5
2,14 210.5
FORECAST
14,2 1,366
TIERCE
14,2,1 28,431
TRIO
1,2,14 3,944
FIRST 4
1,2,3,14 9,725
QUARTET
14,2,1,3 253,429