Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 3 YIELDING 1600m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 KARMA Closed strongly TT 1.34.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 9 11.0 1-1/4
2 7 VOYAGE SAMURAI Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 5 3.6 1-1/4
3 10 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly CP1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 8 14.0 2
4 8 HELENE WARRIOR Closed strongly XB1/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 1 14.0 2
5 3 STAR MAC Closed strongly B-/CP2 K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 7.6 2-3/4
6 2 FRANTANCK Led early Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 4.9 3-1/4
7 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 18.0 6
8 1 STUNNING PEACH TT1 Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 4.8 6-1/4
9 11 FOOLISH HEART V A Atzeni · C W Chang 7 11.0 7-3/4
10 9 KA YING SUPERB Closed strongly H/P/TT- M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 76.0 10-1/4
11 5 BEAUTY LIVE CP2/TT B Avdulla · F C Lor 4 100.0 16-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on YIELDING going. KARMA, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with VOYAGE SAMURAI second and POWERFUL WINGS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite VOYAGE SAMURAI finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KARMA—2. VOYAGE SAMURAI+1.25L3. POWERFUL WINGS+2L4. HELENE WARRIOR+2L5. STAR MAC+2.75L6. FRANTANCK+3.25L7. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+6L8. STUNNING PEACH+6.25L9. FOOLISH HEART+7.75L10. KA YING SUPERB+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick VOYAGE SAMURAI (21.1%) finished 2nd — the winner KARMA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 VOYAGE SAMURAI 21.1% 4.74 2
2 2 FRANTANCK 13.5% 7.42 6
3 1 STUNNING PEACH 13.0% 7.72 8
4 11 FOOLISH HEART 12.4% 8.09 9
5 3 STAR MAC 9.9% 10.10 5
6 8 HELENE WARRIOR 8.9% 11.24 4
7 6 KARMA 6.9% 14.40 1
8 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 6.4% 15.70 7
9 10 POWERFUL WINGS 4.2% 24.01 3
10 5 BEAUTY LIVE 2.1% 48.58 11
11 9 KA YING SUPERB 1.8% 55.98 10
VOYAGE SAMURAIFRANTANCKSTUNNING PEACHFOOLISH HEARTSTAR MACHELENE WARRIORKARMA — wonUNIVERSAL HORIZONPOWERFUL WINGSBEAUTY LIVEKA YING SUPERB

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 111

PLACE

6 32

7 16.5

10 37.5

QUINELLA

6,7 230.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 81

6,10 193

7,10 126

FORECAST

6,7 627

TIERCE

6,7,10 6,183

TRIO

6,7,10 1,052

FIRST 4

6,7,8,10 3,137

QUARTET

6,7,10,8 80,881

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

14/6 1,244.5

14/7 129

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,14/6,7,10 561,087