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Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:30

Race 2

Class 3 YIELDING 1600m Course A 11 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on YIELDING going. KARMA, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with VOYAGE SAMURAI second and POWERFUL WINGS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite VOYAGE SAMURAI finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 KARMA Closed strongly TT 1.34.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 9 11.0 1-1/4
2 7 VOYAGE SAMURAI Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 5 3.6 1-1/4
3 10 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly CP1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 8 14.0 2
4 8 HELENE WARRIOR Closed strongly XB1/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 1 14.0 2
5 3 STAR MAC Closed strongly B-/CP2 K Teetan · D A Hayes 3 7.6 2-3/4
6 2 FRANTANCK Led early Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 4.9 3-1/4
7 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 18.0 6
8 1 STUNNING PEACH TT1 Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 4.8 6-1/4
9 11 FOOLISH HEART V A Atzeni · C W Chang 7 11.0 7-3/4
10 9 KA YING SUPERB Closed strongly H/P/TT- M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 76.0 10-1/4
11 5 BEAUTY LIVE CP2/TT B Avdulla · F C Lor 4 100.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KARMA2. VOYAGE SAMURAI+1.25L3. POWERFUL WINGS+2L4. HELENE WARRIOR+2L5. STAR MAC+2.75L6. FRANTANCK+3.25L7. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+6L8. STUNNING PEACH+6.25L9. FOOLISH HEART+7.75L10. KA YING SUPERB+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick VOYAGE SAMURAI (21.1%) finished 2nd — the winner KARMA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 VOYAGE SAMURAI 21.1% 4.74 2
2 2 FRANTANCK 13.5% 7.42 6
3 1 STUNNING PEACH 13.0% 7.72 8
4 11 FOOLISH HEART 12.4% 8.09 9
5 3 STAR MAC 9.9% 10.10 5
6 8 HELENE WARRIOR 8.9% 11.24 4
7 6 KARMA 6.9% 14.40 1
8 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 6.4% 15.70 7
9 10 POWERFUL WINGS 4.2% 24.01 3
10 5 BEAUTY LIVE 2.1% 48.58 11
11 9 KA YING SUPERB 1.8% 55.98 10
VOYAGE SAMURAIFRANTANCKSTUNNING PEACHFOOLISH HEARTSTAR MACHELENE WARRIORKARMA — wonUNIVERSAL HORIZONPOWERFUL WINGSBEAUTY LIVEKA YING SUPERB

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 111

PLACE

6 32

7 16.5

10 37.5

QUINELLA

6,7 230.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 81

6,10 193

7,10 126

FORECAST

6,7 627

TIERCE

6,7,10 6,183

TRIO

6,7,10 1,052

FIRST 4

6,7,8,10 3,137

QUARTET

6,7,10,8 80,881

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

14/6 1,244.5

14/7 129

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,14/6,7,10 561,087