Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:30
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Group 1 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. INVINCIBLE SAGE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/2, with CALIFORNIA SPANGLE second and MUGEN third. The 2.4 favourite CALIFORNIA SPANGLE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INVINCIBLE SAGE CP 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 5 | 6.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | MUGEN H- B Shinn · P C Ng | B Shinn | P C Ng | 9 | 9.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE J McDonald · J Size | J McDonald | J Size | 1 | 4.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | LUCKY WITH YOU A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 10 | 64.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | VICTOR THE WINNER TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 2 | 5.9 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | LITTLE BROSE CP1 K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 3 | 63.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | BELIEVING XB/TT H Bentley · G Boughey | H Bentley | G Boughey | 4 | 127.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SUNRISE RONALDO H/XB D Lane · S Yasuda | D Lane | S Yasuda | 6 | 122.0 | 13 |
| 11 | 2 | MAD COOL R Sakai · M Ikezoe | R Sakai | M Ikezoe | 11 | 18.0 | 14-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | INVINCIBLE SAGE | 21.0% | 4.77 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE | 15.5% | 6.46 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 13.4% | 7.48 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | MUGEN | 13.2% | 7.55 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | FLYING ACE | 10.2% | 9.79 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | VICTOR THE WINNER | 8.4% | 11.92 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | BELIEVING | 5.6% | 17.92 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | SUNRISE RONALDO | 3.7% | 26.92 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | LITTLE BROSE | 3.5% | 28.82 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 3.4% | 29.12 | 6 |
| 11 | 2 | MAD COOL | 2.1% | 47.22 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 69
PLACE
1 13
5 18
9 29
QUINELLA
1,5 77
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 30
1,9 50.5
5,9 80
FORECAST
5,1 240
TIERCE
5,1,9 1,356
TRIO
1,5,9 205
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 364
QUARTET
5,1,9,8 8,556
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
3/1/1 142
3/1/5 2,354
4TH DOUBLE
1/1 26
1/5 440