Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 16:49
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR Closed strongly TT 2.01.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J McDonald · C S Shum | J McDonald | C S Shum | 10 | 1.9 | N |
| 2 | 4 | PROGNOSIS Closed strongly H Y Kawada · M Nakauchida | Y Kawada | M Nakauchida | 5 | 5.4 | N |
| 3 | 9 | NORTH BRIDGE Led early Y Iwata · T Okumura | Y Iwata | T Okumura | 3 | 104.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | HAPPY TOGETHER Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 74.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | HISHI IGUAZU XB D Lane · N Hori | D Lane | N Hori | 1 | 16.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 8 | 54.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | DUBAI HONOUR XB/TT T Marquand · W J Haggas | T Marquand | W J Haggas | 9 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 2 | 3.9 | 8-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | NIMBLE NIMBUS V/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 11 | 52.0 | 17-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | STRAIGHT ARRON C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 24.0 | 22 |
| 11 | 6 | SWORD POINT CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 118.0 | 37-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Group 1 over 2000m, run on YIELDING going. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, ridden by J McDonald and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with PROGNOSIS second and NORTH BRIDGE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MASSIVE SOVEREIGN | 27.8% | 3.60 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | ROMANTIC WARRIOR | 22.2% | 4.50 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | HISHI IGUAZU | 9.5% | 10.51 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | PROGNOSIS | 8.6% | 11.65 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | NORTH BRIDGE | 6.2% | 16.14 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | DUBAI HONOUR | 6.0% | 16.78 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 5.8% | 17.18 | 10 |
| 8 | 10 | HAPPY TOGETHER | 4.6% | 21.97 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 4.2% | 23.93 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | FIVE G PATCH | 3.8% | 26.28 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | SWORD POINT | 1.4% | 70.25 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 19
PLACE
1 11.5
4 16.5
9 151
QUINELLA
1,4 47.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 21.5
1,9 258
4,9 520
FORECAST
1,4 78
TIERCE
1,4,9 3,517
TRIO
1,4,9 1,382
FIRST 4
1,4,9,10 8,009
QUARTET
1,4,9,10 69,392
All pools (2 more)
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,10/1,4,9 722,838
7TH DOUBLE
3/1 536.5
3/4 258.5