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Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:30

Race 7

Group 1 YIELDING 1600m Course A 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Group 1 over 1600m, run on YIELDING going. BEAUTY ETERNAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with RED LION second and VOYAGE BUBBLE third. The winner led throughout. The 1.5 favourite GOLDEN SIXTY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.34.52
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BEAUTY ETERNAL Wire to wire 1.34.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 11 12.0 1-1/2
2 10 RED LION Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 8 30.0 1-1/2
3 2 VOYAGE BUBBLE CP J McDonald · P F Yiu 6 6.0 1-3/4
4 1 GOLDEN SIXTY C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 1.5 3-1/4
5 9 GALAXY PATCH Closed strongly B Shinn · P C Ng 1 5.9 4-3/4
6 11 TAJ DRAGON A Atzeni · P C Ng 3 101.0 5
7 4 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 23.0 6
8 8 ELTON BAROWS BO1 A Nishimura · H Sugiyama 5 86.0 6-3/4
9 6 BRAVE EMPEROR B/XB L Morris · A Watson 9 46.0 9-3/4
10 5 OBAMBURUMAI D Lane · K Yoshimura 10 46.0 10-3/4
11 7 CHAMPAGNE COLOR H/XB R Sakai · T Tanaka 2 125.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY ETERNAL2. RED LION+1.5L3. VOYAGE BUBBLE+1.75L4. GOLDEN SIXTY+3.25L5. GALAXY PATCH+4.75L6. TAJ DRAGON+5L7. BEAUTY JOY+6L8. ELTON BAROWS+6.75L9. BRAVE EMPEROR+9.75L10. OBAMBURUMAI+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOLDEN SIXTY (37.6%) finished 4th — the winner BEAUTY ETERNAL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GOLDEN SIXTY 37.6% 2.66 4
2 2 VOYAGE BUBBLE 19.2% 5.21 3
3 3 BEAUTY ETERNAL 12.7% 7.89 1
4 9 GALAXY PATCH 5.9% 17.08 5
5 10 RED LION 5.1% 19.75 2
6 8 ELTON BAROWS 4.3% 23.46 8
7 4 BEAUTY JOY 3.6% 27.89 7
8 6 BRAVE EMPEROR 3.6% 28.00 9
9 7 CHAMPAGNE COLOR 3.4% 29.14 11
10 5 OBAMBURUMAI 2.5% 39.30 10
11 11 TAJ DRAGON 2.2% 45.07 6
GOLDEN SIXTYVOYAGE BUBBLEBEAUTY ETERNAL — wonGALAXY PATCHRED LIONELTON BAROWSBEAUTY JOYBRAVE EMPERORCHAMPAGNE COLOROBAMBURUMAITAJ DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 126.5

PLACE

2 14.5

3 27

10 43

QUINELLA

3,10 1,110.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 70.5

2,10 122.5

3,10 207.5

FORECAST

3,10 2,441

TIERCE

3,10,2 12,773

TRIO

2,3,10 2,060

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 258

QUARTET

3,10,2,1 16,121

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

3/3 1,795

3/10 605