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Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:30

Race 3

Class 4 YIELDING 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. LUCY IN THE SKY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/2, with GLORY ELITE second and DIVANO third. The 3.1 favourite DIVANO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 LUCY IN THE SKY H 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 4.3 1-1/2
2 8 GLORY ELITE H K C Leung · K H Ting 5 17.0 1-1/2
3 1 DIVANO TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 3.1 5
4 9 HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT J McDonald · J Richards 12 6.2 6
5 6 HANDSOME BOMB TT A Atzeni · W Y So 4 20.0 6
6 2 LIFELINE EXPRESS H Bowman · J Size 3 7.0 6-1/2
7 12 SPICY GOLD H/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 14.0 6-3/4
8 4 GOLDEN DARCI P-/XB A Badel · D J Hall 11 38.0 7
9 14 GANGNAM STAR XB M Chadwick · P C Ng 2 15.0 7-1/2
10 13 ISLAND GOLDEN B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 10 29.0 8-1/4
11 5 GRAND BOSS TT1 Y L Chung · C S Shum 14 97.0 8-3/4
12 11 SILVER DESTINY TT- B Avdulla · C H Yip 6 32.0 10-1/4
13 10 VERBIER B Thompson · C Fownes 7 155.0 10-1/2
14 7 MIGHTY STRENGTH M F Poon · P F Yiu 13 88.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCY IN THE SKY2. GLORY ELITE+1.5L3. DIVANO+5L4. HAPPY FOR ALL+6L5. HANDSOME BOMB+6L6. LIFELINE EXPRESS+6.5L7. SPICY GOLD+6.75L8. GOLDEN DARCI+7L9. GANGNAM STAR+7.5L10. ISLAND GOLDEN+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DIVANO (18.2%) finished 3rd — the winner LUCY IN THE SKY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DIVANO 18.2% 5.50 3
2 2 LIFELINE EXPRESS 13.4% 7.47 6
3 9 HAPPY FOR ALL 10.9% 9.19 4
4 3 LUCY IN THE SKY 10.3% 9.70 1
5 14 GANGNAM STAR 8.6% 11.66 9
6 12 SPICY GOLD 7.3% 13.61 7
7 5 GRAND BOSS 5.4% 18.50 11
8 4 GOLDEN DARCI 5.3% 18.78 8
9 8 GLORY ELITE 5.2% 19.06 2
10 6 HANDSOME BOMB 4.4% 22.60 5
11 7 MIGHTY STRENGTH 4.3% 23.25 14
12 11 SILVER DESTINY 3.1% 32.55 12
13 13 ISLAND GOLDEN 2.5% 39.62 10
14 10 VERBIER 1.0% 97.33 13
DIVANOLIFELINE EXPRESSHAPPY FOR ALLLUCY IN THE SKY — wonGANGNAM STARSPICY GOLDGRAND BOSSGOLDEN DARCIGLORY ELITEHANDSOME BOMBMIGHTY STRENGTHSILVER DESTINYISLAND GOLDENVERBIER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 43.5

PLACE

1 16.5

3 17

8 42

QUINELLA

3,8 311.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 36.5

1,8 100

3,8 112.5

FORECAST

3,8 574

TIERCE

3,8,1 2,344

TRIO

1,3,8 291

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 418

QUARTET

3,8,1,9 11,127

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/3 528

6/8 403