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Sha Tin · 2024-04-28 · 13:29

Race 10

Class 3 YIELDING 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. PHOENIX LIGHT, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by C H Yip, won by 1, with JAMES TAK second and FULL CREDIT third. The 3.8 favourite FULL CREDIT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 PHOENIX LIGHT H 1.10.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · C H Yip 6 29.0 1
2 2 JAMES TAK C L Chau · T P Yung 8 9.0 1
3 8 FULL CREDIT L Hewitson · M Newnham 7 3.8 1
4 7 STAR CLUB B Shinn · D J Hall 4 6.1 1-1/2
5 6 GRACIOUS EXPRESS CP H Bentley · P F Yiu 2 9.4 2
6 4 GUSTOSISIMO TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards 10 26.0 3-1/4
7 3 STELLAR EXPRESS J McDonald · J Size 11 7.9 3-3/4
8 10 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 13 33.0 4-1/2
9 5 STORM RIDER Z Purton · D A Hayes 14 7.2 5-1/4
10 1 HASTEN DELIGHT B/TT H Bowman · K W Lui 5 7.2 5-1/2
11 14 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 3 21.0 6-3/4
12 9 MASSIVE ACTION SR/V H T Mo · F C Lor 9 102.0 7-3/4
13 11 TELECOM POWER H-/B1 B Thompson · Y S Tsui 1 186.0 11-1/4
14 12 BULB EMPEROR B E C W Wong · P C Ng 12 224.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PHOENIX LIGHT2. JAMES TAK+1L3. FULL CREDIT+1L4. STAR CLUB+1.5L5. GRACIOUS EXPRESS+2L6. GUSTOSISIMO+3.25L7. STELLAR EXPRESS+3.75L8. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+4.5L9. STORM RIDER+5.25L10. HASTEN DELIGHT+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JAMES TAK (13.8%) finished 2nd — the winner PHOENIX LIGHT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 JAMES TAK 13.8% 7.26 2
2 5 STORM RIDER 13.3% 7.49 9
3 1 HASTEN DELIGHT 13.3% 7.51 10
4 8 FULL CREDIT 13.1% 7.64 3
5 3 STELLAR EXPRESS 11.3% 8.82 7
6 7 STAR CLUB 9.6% 10.38 4
7 6 GRACIOUS EXPRESS 9.0% 11.09 5
8 14 COLOURFUL PRINCE 4.7% 21.15 11
9 4 GUSTOSISIMO 3.8% 26.54 6
10 13 PHOENIX LIGHT 2.8% 36.25 1
11 10 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 2.6% 39.06 8
12 9 MASSIVE ACTION 1.8% 56.94 12
13 12 BULB EMPEROR 0.6% 154.38 14
14 11 TELECOM POWER 0.3% 353.09 13
JAMES TAKSTORM RIDERHASTEN DELIGHTFULL CREDITSTELLAR EXPRESSSTAR CLUBGRACIOUS EXPRESSCOLOURFUL PRINCEGUSTOSISIMOPHOENIX LIGHT — wonCALIFORNIA DEEPLYMASSIVE ACTIONBULB EMPERORTELECOM POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 299.5

PLACE

2 29

8 17.5

13 68.5

QUINELLA

2,13 966.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 70

2,13 275

8,13 183.5

FORECAST

13,2 2,164

TIERCE

13,2,8 11,269

TRIO

2,8,13 1,438

FIRST 4

2,7,8,13 1,440

QUARTET

13,2,8,7 58,094

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/12/2 707

1/12/13 8,897

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,12/2,8,13 574,864

9TH DOUBLE

12/2 291

12/13 4,309

SIX UP

1,5/3,10/3,10/1,4/7,12/2,13 115,504

5/3/3/1/12/13 7,240,496

1 [J McDonald]

5 [C S Shum]