沙田 · 2024-05-05 · 20:08
第 6場
2024-05-05沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、P C Ng訓練的AESTHETICISM勝出，贏出HD。MISTER DAPPER獲得亞軍；JOY OF SPRING獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.4倍大熱門JOY OF SPRING跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AESTHETICISM 後段發力 B 1.34.80 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 10 | 10.0 | HD |
| 2 | 7 | MISTER DAPPER H-/SR-/XB/CP1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 12 | 7.9 | HD |
| 3 | 9 | JOY OF SPRING 後段發力 TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 13 | 5.4 | N |
| 4 | 6 | HOLY POWER 早段領放 B/TT A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 8 | 37.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | FLYING MOJITO 後段發力 XB-/V/TT- A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 5 | 7.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BIG RED L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 7 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GOOD GOOD B B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 51.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | CHILLI BABA V A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | MISSION VOICE L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 3 | 8.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | LOOKING COOL SR/V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 44.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | TIGER AND GOLD 後段發力 B B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 4 | 206.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | LAUGH TALE XB/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 14 | 7.6 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | SPONGE BABE H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 170.0 | 16 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | JOY OF SPRING | 17.3% | 5.78 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | FLYING MOJITO | 13.8% | 7.27 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY | 11.3% | 8.88 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | LAUGH TALE | 10.1% | 9.88 | 13 |
| 5 | 2 | AESTHETICISM | 9.6% | 10.42 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | MISSION VOICE | 7.1% | 14.01 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | BIG RED | 6.3% | 15.91 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | CHILLI BABA | 5.9% | 16.97 | 8 |
| 9 | 14 | LOOKING COOL | 5.1% | 19.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | MISTER DAPPER | 4.8% | 21.03 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | GOOD GOOD | 3.9% | 25.76 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | HOLY POWER | 3.7% | 26.72 | 4 |
| 13 | 8 | SPONGE BABE | 0.6% | 166.81 | 14 |
| 14 | 11 | TIGER AND GOLD | 0.5% | 195.64 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 107
PLACE
2 34
7 28.5
9 19.5
QUINELLA
2,7 437.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 149
2,9 83.5
7,9 88.5
FORECAST
2,7 915
TIERCE
2,7,9 5,295
TRIO
2,7,9 759
FIRST 4
2,6,7,9 5,759
QUARTET
2,7,9,6 111,922
全部彩池（另 1 項）
5TH DOUBLE
5/2 185.5
5/7 131