Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. AESTHETICISM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with MISTER DAPPER second and JOY OF SPRING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.4 favourite JOY OF SPRING finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B 1.34.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 10 | 10.0 | HD |
| 2 | 7 | MISTER DAPPER H-/SR-/XB/CP1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 12 | 7.9 | HD |
| 3 | 9 | JOY OF SPRING Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 13 | 5.4 | N |
| 4 | 6 | HOLY POWER Led early B/TT A Badel · J Richards | A Badel | J Richards | 8 | 37.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | FLYING MOJITO Closed strongly XB-/V/TT- A Atzeni · D J Hall | A Atzeni | D J Hall | 5 | 7.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BIG RED L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 7 | 9.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GOOD GOOD B B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 6 | 51.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | CHILLI BABA V A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | MISSION VOICE L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 9.4 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 3 | 8.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | LOOKING COOL SR/V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 1 | 44.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | TIGER AND GOLD Closed strongly B B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 4 | 206.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 1 | LAUGH TALE XB/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 14 | 7.6 | 13-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | SPONGE BABE H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 170.0 | 16 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | JOY OF SPRING | 17.3% | 5.78 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | FLYING MOJITO | 13.8% | 7.27 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY | 11.3% | 8.88 | 10 |
| 4 | 1 | LAUGH TALE | 10.1% | 9.88 | 13 |
| 5 | 2 | AESTHETICISM | 9.6% | 10.42 | 1 |
| 6 | 12 | MISSION VOICE | 7.1% | 14.01 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | BIG RED | 6.3% | 15.91 | 6 |
| 8 | 13 | CHILLI BABA | 5.9% | 16.97 | 8 |
| 9 | 14 | LOOKING COOL | 5.1% | 19.43 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | MISTER DAPPER | 4.8% | 21.03 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | GOOD GOOD | 3.9% | 25.76 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | HOLY POWER | 3.7% | 26.72 | 4 |
| 13 | 8 | SPONGE BABE | 0.6% | 166.81 | 14 |
| 14 | 11 | TIGER AND GOLD | 0.5% | 195.64 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 107
PLACE
2 34
7 28.5
9 19.5
QUINELLA
2,7 437.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 149
2,9 83.5
7,9 88.5
FORECAST
2,7 915
TIERCE
2,7,9 5,295
TRIO
2,7,9 759
FIRST 4
2,6,7,9 5,759
QUARTET
2,7,9,6 111,922
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
5/2 185.5
5/7 131