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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY GLORY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with STORMING DRAGON second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite STORMING DRAGON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BEAUTY GLORY Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 13 71.0 1
2 8 STORMING DRAGON Closed strongly TT Z Purton · J Richards 4 2.7 1
3 4 ARIEL CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 5 5.8 1-3/4
4 12 TOP PEAK TT H Bentley · T P Yung 3 17.0 3-1/4
5 1 DARING PURSUIT Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 5.1 3-1/2
6 7 CALL ME SUPREME B/TT H Bowman · C W Chang 14 12.0 3-3/4
7 10 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB K Teetan · K H Ting 10 11.0 4-1/4
8 5 SUPER LEGENDS Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 7 15.0 4-1/2
9 9 MATSU VICTOR K De Melo · K W Lui 12 98.0 5-1/2
10 14 TRAVEL GOLF M Chadwick · C H Yip 6 62.0 6
11 13 SUPER BONUS Led early B/TT B Thompson · P C Ng 2 44.0 6
12 6 WINDICATOR FAMILY B A Badel · D J Hall 1 21.0 6
13 2 MIDORI BURLY B L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 14.0 7-1/4
14 11 CIRCUIT BLAZING H1/P1/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 11 187.0 84-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY GLORY2. STORMING DRAGON+1L3. ARIEL+1.75L4. TOP PEAK+3.25L5. DARING PURSUIT+3.5L6. CALL ME SUPREME+3.75L7. SMILING COLLECTOR+4.25L8. SUPER LEGENDS+4.5L9. MATSU VICTOR+5.5L10. TRAVEL GOLF+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORMING DRAGON (22.5%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY GLORY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 STORMING DRAGON 22.5% 4.45 2
2 4 ARIEL 13.3% 7.50 3
3 1 DARING PURSUIT 9.5% 10.53 5
4 10 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.0% 11.07 7
5 12 TOP PEAK 8.8% 11.36 4
6 7 CALL ME SUPREME 7.9% 12.61 6
7 6 WINDICATOR FAMILY 5.8% 17.21 12
8 5 SUPER LEGENDS 5.5% 18.09 8
9 3 BEAUTY GLORY 4.7% 21.45 1
10 2 MIDORI BURLY 4.0% 24.76 13
11 14 TRAVEL GOLF 3.9% 25.67 10
12 13 SUPER BONUS 2.8% 35.56 11
13 9 MATSU VICTOR 1.5% 65.04 9
14 11 CIRCUIT BLAZING 0.6% 154.15 14
STORMING DRAGONARIELDARING PURSUITSMILING COLLECTORTOP PEAKCALL ME SUPREMEWINDICATOR FAMILYSUPER LEGENDSBEAUTY GLORY — wonMIDORI BURLYTRAVEL GOLFSUPER BONUSMATSU VICTORCIRCUIT BLAZING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 712

PLACE

3 161.5

4 21

8 13.5

QUINELLA

3,8 1,089

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 489

3,8 373

4,8 41

FORECAST

3,8 3,322

TIERCE

3,8,4 23,699

TRIO

3,4,8 1,503

FIRST 4

3,4,8,12 5,387

QUARTET

3,8,4,12 218,504

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,9/3,4,8 225,027

6TH DOUBLE

2/3 5,785.5

2/8 52

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,13/2,7,9/Any Combination 14,727