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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 15:36

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BEAUTY GLORY Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 13 71.0 1
2 8 STORMING DRAGON Closed strongly TT Z Purton · J Richards 4 2.7 1
3 4 ARIEL CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 5 5.8 1-3/4
4 12 TOP PEAK TT H Bentley · T P Yung 3 17.0 3-1/4
5 1 DARING PURSUIT Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 5.1 3-1/2
6 7 CALL ME SUPREME B/TT H Bowman · C W Chang 14 12.0 3-3/4
7 10 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB K Teetan · K H Ting 10 11.0 4-1/4
8 5 SUPER LEGENDS Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 7 15.0 4-1/2
9 9 MATSU VICTOR K De Melo · K W Lui 12 98.0 5-1/2
10 14 TRAVEL GOLF M Chadwick · C H Yip 6 62.0 6
11 13 SUPER BONUS Led early B/TT B Thompson · P C Ng 2 44.0 6
12 6 WINDICATOR FAMILY B A Badel · D J Hall 1 21.0 6
13 2 MIDORI BURLY B L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 14.0 7-1/4
14 11 CIRCUIT BLAZING H1/P1/TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 11 187.0 84-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY GLORY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with STORMING DRAGON second and ARIEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite STORMING DRAGON finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY GLORY—2. STORMING DRAGON+1L3. ARIEL+1.75L4. TOP PEAK+3.25L5. DARING PURSUIT+3.5L6. CALL ME SUPREME+3.75L7. SMILING COLLECTOR+4.25L8. SUPER LEGENDS+4.5L9. MATSU VICTOR+5.5L10. TRAVEL GOLF+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORMING DRAGON (22.5%) finished 2nd — the winner BEAUTY GLORY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 STORMING DRAGON 22.5% 4.45 2
2 4 ARIEL 13.3% 7.50 3
3 1 DARING PURSUIT 9.5% 10.53 5
4 10 SMILING COLLECTOR 9.0% 11.07 7
5 12 TOP PEAK 8.8% 11.36 4
6 7 CALL ME SUPREME 7.9% 12.61 6
7 6 WINDICATOR FAMILY 5.8% 17.21 12
8 5 SUPER LEGENDS 5.5% 18.09 8
9 3 BEAUTY GLORY 4.7% 21.45 1
10 2 MIDORI BURLY 4.0% 24.76 13
11 14 TRAVEL GOLF 3.9% 25.67 10
12 13 SUPER BONUS 2.8% 35.56 11
13 9 MATSU VICTOR 1.5% 65.04 9
14 11 CIRCUIT BLAZING 0.6% 154.15 14
STORMING DRAGONARIELDARING PURSUITSMILING COLLECTORTOP PEAKCALL ME SUPREMEWINDICATOR FAMILYSUPER LEGENDSBEAUTY GLORY — wonMIDORI BURLYTRAVEL GOLFSUPER BONUSMATSU VICTORCIRCUIT BLAZING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 712

PLACE

3 161.5

4 21

8 13.5

QUINELLA

3,8 1,089

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 489

3,8 373

4,8 41

FORECAST

3,8 3,322

TIERCE

3,8,4 23,699

TRIO

3,4,8 1,503

FIRST 4

3,4,8,12 5,387

QUARTET

3,8,4,12 218,504

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,9/3,4,8 225,027

6TH DOUBLE

2/3 5,785.5

2/8 52

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,5,13/2,7,9/Any Combination 14,727