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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08

Race 8

Group 3 GOOD 2400m Course B 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Group 3 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. LA CITY BLANCHE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with FIVE G PATCH second and UNBELIEVABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite FIVE G PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.25.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly TT 2.25.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 22.0 N
2 4 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 5 3.9 N
3 11 UNBELIEVABLE Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 9 5.3 1-3/4
4 5 MOMENTS IN TIME Led early TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 8 9.1 4
5 10 NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 4 16.0 7-3/4
6 12 TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 1 8.6 9
7 1 RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly SR H Bowman · D J Whyte 10 13.0 9-1/2
8 2 MONEY CATCHER V M F Poon · F C Lor 2 22.0 12-3/4
9 6 RUNNING GLORY B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 7 88.0 16-1/2
10 9 KA YING GENERATION PC A Atzeni · P C Ng 11 5.5 17-3/4
11 3 SENOR TOBA B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 8.2 31-3/4
8 CHILL CHIBI A Badel · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LA CITY BLANCHE2. FIVE G PATCH+0.05L3. UNBELIEVABLE+1.75L4. MOMENTS IN TIME+4L5. NATURAL STORM+7.75L6. TURIN MASCOT+9L7. RUSSIAN EMPEROR+9.5L8. MONEY CATCHER+12.75L9. RUNNING GLORY+16.5L10. KA YING GENERATION+17.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MOMENTS IN TIME (24.9%) finished 4th — the winner LA CITY BLANCHE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MOMENTS IN TIME 24.9% 4.01 4
2 9 KA YING GENERATION 13.9% 7.19 10
3 4 FIVE G PATCH 13.5% 7.42 2
4 12 TURIN MASCOT 11.5% 8.71 6
5 11 UNBELIEVABLE 11.3% 8.88 3
6 10 NATURAL STORM 6.4% 15.70 5
7 3 SENOR TOBA 5.2% 19.41 11
8 1 RUSSIAN EMPEROR 4.9% 20.50 7
9 7 LA CITY BLANCHE 3.9% 25.69 1
10 2 MONEY CATCHER 2.6% 37.75 8
11 6 RUNNING GLORY 2.0% 49.51 9
MOMENTS IN TIMEKA YING GENERATIONFIVE G PATCHTURIN MASCOTUNBELIEVABLENATURAL STORMSENOR TOBARUSSIAN EMPERORLA CITY BLANCHE — wonMONEY CATCHERRUNNING GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 223

PLACE

4 16

7 51

11 22

QUINELLA

4,7 315.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 111

4,11 43.5

7,11 186.5

FORECAST

7,4 863

TIERCE

7,4,11 7,191

TRIO

4,7,11 790

FIRST 4

4,5,7,11 1,782

QUARTET

7,4,11,5 52,567

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

3/4 578

3/7 7,675.5