Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Group 3 over 2400m, run on GOOD going. LA CITY BLANCHE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with FIVE G PATCH second and UNBELIEVABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite FIVE G PATCH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly TT 2.25.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 22.0 | N |
| 2 | 4 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 5 | 3.9 | N |
| 3 | 11 | UNBELIEVABLE Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 9 | 5.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | MOMENTS IN TIME Led early TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 8 | 9.1 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 4 | 16.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 1 | 8.6 | 9 |
| 7 | 1 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR Closed strongly SR H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 10 | 13.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | MONEY CATCHER V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 22.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | RUNNING GLORY B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 7 | 88.0 | 16-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | KA YING GENERATION PC A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 5.5 | 17-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | SENOR TOBA B/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 8.2 | 31-3/4 |
| — | 8 | CHILL CHIBI A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | MOMENTS IN TIME | 24.9% | 4.01 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | KA YING GENERATION | 13.9% | 7.19 | 10 |
| 3 | 4 | FIVE G PATCH | 13.5% | 7.42 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | TURIN MASCOT | 11.5% | 8.71 | 6 |
| 5 | 11 | UNBELIEVABLE | 11.3% | 8.88 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | NATURAL STORM | 6.4% | 15.70 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | SENOR TOBA | 5.2% | 19.41 | 11 |
| 8 | 1 | RUSSIAN EMPEROR | 4.9% | 20.50 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 3.9% | 25.69 | 1 |
| 10 | 2 | MONEY CATCHER | 2.6% | 37.75 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | RUNNING GLORY | 2.0% | 49.51 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 223
PLACE
4 16
7 51
11 22
QUINELLA
4,7 315.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 111
4,11 43.5
7,11 186.5
FORECAST
7,4 863
TIERCE
7,4,11 7,191
TRIO
4,7,11 790
FIRST 4
4,5,7,11 1,782
QUARTET
7,4,11,5 52,567
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
3/4 578
3/7 7,675.5