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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HONG KONG HALL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Hall, won by 2, with SUPER WIN DRAGON second and VICTORY MOMENTS third. The 2.5 favourite VICTORY MOMENTS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 HONG KONG HALL TT 1.09.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Hall 1 6.4 2
2 4 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT K De Melo · W Y So 3 10.0 2
3 2 VICTORY MOMENTS SR/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 2.5 2-1/2
4 6 MONTA FRUTTA H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 10.0 3-1/4
5 3 CAPITAL DELIGHT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 7.3 3-1/2
6 10 SKY FOREVER B/TT A Badel · K L Man 9 17.0 7-3/4
7 9 NEBRASKAN PC B Avdulla · J Size 5 32.0 8-1/4
8 12 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT H Bentley · K L Man 8 8.7 8-1/4
9 7 CAMPIONE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 4 13.0 17
10 11 SMART CITY CP1 A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 110.0 23-3/4
11 5 ALL IS GOOD B- H T Mo · K W Lui 7 87.0 25-1/4
12 1 MAGNIAC V-/B1/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 10 23.0 28-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HONG KONG HALL2. SUPER WIN DRAGON+2L3. VICTORY MOMENTS+2.5L4. MONTA FRUTTA+3.25L5. CAPITAL DELIGHT+3.5L6. SKY FOREVER+7.75L7. NEBRASKAN+8.25L8. SELF IMPROVEMENT+8.25L9. CAMPIONE+17L10. SMART CITY+23.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick VICTORY MOMENTS (33.1%) finished 3rd — the winner HONG KONG HALL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 VICTORY MOMENTS 33.1% 3.02 3
2 8 HONG KONG HALL 12.1% 8.23 1
3 6 MONTA FRUTTA 10.1% 9.92 4
4 4 SUPER WIN DRAGON 7.9% 12.70 2
5 1 MAGNIAC 7.0% 14.31 12
6 12 SELF IMPROVEMENT 7.0% 14.35 8
7 3 CAPITAL DELIGHT 6.2% 16.08 5
8 9 NEBRASKAN 5.0% 20.12 7
9 10 SKY FOREVER 4.2% 23.57 6
10 7 CAMPIONE 4.1% 24.60 9
11 5 ALL IS GOOD 2.4% 42.42 11
12 11 SMART CITY 0.9% 105.81 10
VICTORY MOMENTSHONG KONG HALL — wonMONTA FRUTTASUPER WIN DRAGONMAGNIACSELF IMPROVEMENTCAPITAL DELIGHTNEBRASKANSKY FOREVERCAMPIONEALL IS GOODSMART CITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 64.5

PLACE

2 13

4 30

8 19

QUINELLA

4,8 353

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 49.5

2,8 42

4,8 117

FORECAST

8,4 739

TIERCE

8,4,2 1,963

TRIO

2,4,8 166

FIRST 4

2,4,6,8 292

QUARTET

8,4,2,6 8,517

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,11/2,4,8 18,626

8TH DOUBLE

7/4 270

7/8 1,537.5