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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING RISING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/2, with PACKING TREADMILL second and GORGEOUS WIN third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.81
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 KA YING RISING 1.08.81 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 5 1.4 2-1/2
2 3 PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 10.0 2-1/2
3 11 GORGEOUS WIN TT A Badel · C S Shum 8 5.1 2-1/2
4 5 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 2 12.0 3-1/4
5 12 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 9 160.0 4-1/4
6 1 SON PAK FU BO-/B2/TT1 H Bowman · A S Cruz 10 27.0 4-1/2
7 10 APACHE PASS BO/XB M F Poon · P C Ng 4 148.0 5-1/4
8 2 BUNDLE OF CHARM A Atzeni · J Size 11 50.0 5-1/2
9 4 DUKE WAI V C Y Ho · P C Ng 6 28.0 6
10 7 WE ARE HERO V/TT B Thompson · K L Man 3 95.0 6-1/2
11 6 SEASONS WIT B-/V1/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 7 74.0 7
9 REWARD SMILE K Teetan · J Size

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING RISING2. PACKING TREADMILL+2.5L3. GORGEOUS WIN+2.5L4. BEAUTY CHARGE+3.25L5. RISING FROM ASHES+4.25L6. SON PAK FU+4.5L7. APACHE PASS+5.25L8. BUNDLE OF CHARM+5.5L9. DUKE WAI+6L10. WE ARE HERO+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KA YING RISING (60.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 KA YING RISING 60.8% 1.64 1
2 11 GORGEOUS WIN 15.1% 6.63 3
3 5 BEAUTY CHARGE 5.6% 17.91 4
4 3 PACKING TREADMILL 4.3% 23.38 2
5 1 SON PAK FU 2.9% 34.57 6
6 2 BUNDLE OF CHARM 2.7% 36.92 8
7 6 SEASONS WIT 2.2% 44.49 11
8 4 DUKE WAI 2.2% 45.92 9
9 10 APACHE PASS 1.9% 53.12 7
10 7 WE ARE HERO 1.3% 75.99 10
11 12 RISING FROM ASHES 1.0% 97.66 5
KA YING RISING — wonGORGEOUS WINBEAUTY CHARGEPACKING TREADMILLSON PAK FUBUNDLE OF CHARMSEASONS WITDUKE WAIAPACHE PASSWE ARE HERORISING FROM ASHES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 14

PLACE

3 19

8 10.1

11 13.5

QUINELLA

3,8 47

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 22

3,11 43

8,11 14.5

FORECAST

8,3 69

TIERCE

8,3,11 138

TRIO

3,8,11 50

FIRST 4

3,5,8,11 49

QUARTET

8,3,11,5 476

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

8/3 48

8/8,9 91