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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 13 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TOURBILLON PRINCE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with SUPERB KID second and CHING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SUPERB KID finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 TOURBILLON PRINCE Closed strongly TT 1.22.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · T P Yung 12 10.0 SH
2 3 SUPERB KID Closed strongly CP Z Purton · K W Lui 1 2.4 SH
3 1 CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang 8 12.0 2
4 8 MAGNIFICENT NINE B B Avdulla · J Size 7 4.7 2-1/2
5 2 ELLIPTICAL Closed strongly B-/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 2 27.0 2-3/4
6 9 SUPER GOLDI Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor 10 5.7 3-3/4
7 13 SATIRICAL FAN Led early TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum 9 146.0 5
8 4 GOLDEN ARTIE Closed strongly XB B Thompson · P F Yiu 14 9.1 5-1/4
9 14 SEA AIR LEGEND TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 3 190.0 5-1/4
10 7 KING GLORIOSO A Atzeni · D J Whyte 4 38.0 5-1/2
11 10 WAH MAY WAI WAI H1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 31.0 5-3/4
12 6 GRATEFUL HEART TT K De Melo · W Y So 5 39.0 6-1/2
13 12 BRIGHT INHERITANCE B M Chadwick · C H Yip 13 138.0 6-3/4
11 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE L Ferraris · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOURBILLON PRINCE2. SUPERB KID+0.1L3. CHING+2L4. MAGNIFICENT NINE+2.5L5. ELLIPTICAL+2.75L6. SUPER GOLDI+3.75L7. SATIRICAL FAN+5L8. GOLDEN ARTIE+5.25L9. SEA AIR LEGEND+5.25L10. KING GLORIOSO+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPERB KID (55.1%) finished 2nd — the winner TOURBILLON PRINCE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SUPERB KID 55.1% 1.82 2
2 8 MAGNIFICENT NINE 9.0% 11.13 4
3 9 SUPER GOLDI 8.3% 11.98 6
4 5 TOURBILLON PRINCE 6.3% 15.78 1
5 1 CHING 6.3% 15.90 3
6 4 GOLDEN ARTIE 4.1% 24.20 8
7 10 WAH MAY WAI WAI 3.2% 31.26 11
8 6 GRATEFUL HEART 2.8% 36.36 12
9 7 KING GLORIOSO 1.9% 53.91 10
10 2 ELLIPTICAL 1.4% 69.92 5
11 12 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 0.9% 116.17 13
12 14 SEA AIR LEGEND 0.4% 252.52 9
13 13 SATIRICAL FAN 0.3% 296.33 7
SUPERB KIDMAGNIFICENT NINESUPER GOLDITOURBILLON PRINCE — wonCHINGGOLDEN ARTIEWAH MAY WAI WAIGRATEFUL HEARTKING GLORIOSOELLIPTICALBRIGHT INHERITANCESEA AIR LEGENDSATIRICAL FAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 105

PLACE

1 36

3 11.5

5 27.5

QUINELLA

3,5 159

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 62.5

1,5 235.5

3,5 59

FORECAST

5,3 492

TIERCE

5,3,1 4,306

TRIO

1,3,5 686

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 563

QUARTET

5,3,1,8 17,921

All pools (4 more)

10TH DOUBLE

8,9/3,11 10.5

8,9/5 309

2ND TREBLE

8/8,9/3,11 41

8/8,9/5 1,662

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,9,11/1,5>3,11 6,411

SIX UP

2/3/7/8/8,9/5 8,993,003

2,7/3,8/4,7/4,8/3,8,9/3,5,11 3,858

5 [D A Hayes]

1 [Z Purton]