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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 2000m Course B 10 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. GOLDEN FAIRY, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by 3-1/4, with JOYFUL CHAMPION second and GREEN LASER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite JOYFUL CHAMPION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.03.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GOLDEN FAIRY Closed strongly 2.03.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 6 6.9 3-1/4
2 6 JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 1 3.4 3-1/4
3 10 GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 3 15.0 4
4 7 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H-/XB2/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 7 9.8 4-3/4
5 4 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly B B Thompson · T P Yung 10 50.0 4-3/4
6 9 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 9 7.4 5-1/2
7 3 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 5 14.0 6-1/2
8 1 COLOURFUL BARON Led early TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 3.8 10
9 2 SUNNY SHINES Y L Chung · P C Ng 2 15.0 10-1/2
10 5 FASTPASS SR-/XB-/B M Chadwick · C H Yip 4 18.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN FAIRY2. JOYFUL CHAMPION+3.25L3. GREEN LASER+4L4. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+4.75L5. LEATHER MASTER+4.75L6. DIAMOND WINNER+5.5L7. SUPERB DADDY+6.5L8. COLOURFUL BARON+10L9. SUNNY SHINES+10.5L10. FASTPASS+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JOYFUL CHAMPION (29.8%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN FAIRY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 JOYFUL CHAMPION 29.8% 3.36 2
2 1 COLOURFUL BARON 21.3% 4.70 8
3 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 10.8% 9.24 1
4 7 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 7.4% 13.52 4
5 10 GREEN LASER 6.5% 15.49 3
6 3 SUPERB DADDY 6.4% 15.57 7
7 9 DIAMOND WINNER 6.3% 15.84 6
8 5 FASTPASS 4.6% 21.67 10
9 2 SUNNY SHINES 4.4% 22.82 9
10 4 LEATHER MASTER 2.6% 38.85 5
JOYFUL CHAMPIONCOLOURFUL BARONGOLDEN FAIRY — wonARTHUR'S KINGDOMGREEN LASERSUPERB DADDYDIAMOND WINNERFASTPASSSUNNY SHINESLEATHER MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 69

PLACE

6 15.5

8 19.5

10 39.5

QUINELLA

6,8 121

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 43

6,10 80

8,10 125.5

FORECAST

8,6 275

TIERCE

8,6,10 2,832

TRIO

6,8,10 489

FIRST 4

6,7,8,10 798

QUARTET

8,6,10,7 19,360

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/6 13.5

8/8 121