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Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 13:01

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 2000m Course B 10 runners

Result

Official · 2.03.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 GOLDEN FAIRY Closed strongly 2.03.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 6 6.9 3-1/4
2 6 JOYFUL CHAMPION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 1 3.4 3-1/4
3 10 GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 3 15.0 4
4 7 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H-/XB2/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 7 9.8 4-3/4
5 4 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly B B Thompson · T P Yung 10 50.0 4-3/4
6 9 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 9 7.4 5-1/2
7 3 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 5 14.0 6-1/2
8 1 COLOURFUL BARON Led early TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 3.8 10
9 2 SUNNY SHINES Y L Chung · P C Ng 2 15.0 10-1/2
10 5 FASTPASS SR-/XB-/B M Chadwick · C H Yip 4 18.0 11-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. GOLDEN FAIRY, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by 3-1/4, with JOYFUL CHAMPION second and GREEN LASER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite JOYFUL CHAMPION finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN FAIRY—2. JOYFUL CHAMPION+3.25L3. GREEN LASER+4L4. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+4.75L5. LEATHER MASTER+4.75L6. DIAMOND WINNER+5.5L7. SUPERB DADDY+6.5L8. COLOURFUL BARON+10L9. SUNNY SHINES+10.5L10. FASTPASS+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JOYFUL CHAMPION (29.8%) finished 2nd — the winner GOLDEN FAIRY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 JOYFUL CHAMPION 29.8% 3.36 2
2 1 COLOURFUL BARON 21.3% 4.70 8
3 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 10.8% 9.24 1
4 7 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 7.4% 13.52 4
5 10 GREEN LASER 6.5% 15.49 3
6 3 SUPERB DADDY 6.4% 15.57 7
7 9 DIAMOND WINNER 6.3% 15.84 6
8 5 FASTPASS 4.6% 21.67 10
9 2 SUNNY SHINES 4.4% 22.82 9
10 4 LEATHER MASTER 2.6% 38.85 5
JOYFUL CHAMPIONCOLOURFUL BARONGOLDEN FAIRY — wonARTHUR'S KINGDOMGREEN LASERSUPERB DADDYDIAMOND WINNERFASTPASSSUNNY SHINESLEATHER MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 69

PLACE

6 15.5

8 19.5

10 39.5

QUINELLA

6,8 121

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 43

6,10 80

8,10 125.5

FORECAST

8,6 275

TIERCE

8,6,10 2,832

TRIO

6,8,10 489

FIRST 4

6,7,8,10 798

QUARTET

8,6,10,7 19,360

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/6 13.5

8/8 121