Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Griffin over 1000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. LA FORZA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with RUN YES RUN second and SANTORINI third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LA FORZA CP1/TT 0.57.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 6 | 1.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | RUN YES RUN CP M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 9 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | SANTORINI K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 5 | 6.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MEANINGFUL DRAGON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 6.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE CP1/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 10 | 7.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | CALIFORNIA BANNER CP1/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo | L Ferraris | W K Mo | 8 | 80.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | CONCORDE STAR L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 1 | 73.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | SKYEY BLUE B/H M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 7 | 78.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPREME WINNER B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 3 | 94.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | LORD OF THE ROSE M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 4 | 67.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | LA FORZA | 53.2% | 1.88 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | SANTORINI | 13.9% | 7.19 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | MEANINGFUL DRAGON | 10.7% | 9.33 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 9.7% | 10.36 | 5 |
| 5 | 9 | RUN YES RUN | 4.4% | 22.55 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | CONCORDE STAR | 3.2% | 31.51 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | LORD OF THE ROSE | 1.9% | 53.83 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | SKYEY BLUE | 1.2% | 82.70 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | CALIFORNIA BANNER | 1.2% | 84.25 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | SUPREME WINNER | 0.7% | 153.61 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 16
PLACE
5 12
8 13
9 23
QUINELLA
8,9 89.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 16.5
5,9 53.5
8,9 34
FORECAST
8,9 117
TIERCE
8,9,5 287
TRIO
5,8,9 81
FIRST 4
4,5,8,9 101
QUARTET
8,9,5,4 1,223