Sha Tin · 2024-05-05 · 20:08
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-05 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. HOLY LAKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with ORIENTAL SMOKE second and ILLUMINOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite SUNSTRIDER finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HOLY LAKE Closed strongly B/XB 1.47.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 6.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | ORIENTAL SMOKE Led early B/TT- B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 4 | 69.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | ILLUMINOUS Closed strongly V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 6.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | STAR MAC Closed strongly CP H Bowman · D A Hayes | H Bowman | D A Hayes | 1 | 4.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | EIGHTEEN CARAT B A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 2 | 4.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | PACKING HURRICANE B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 10 | 17.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | AFFORDABLE CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 5 | 68.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | KIMBERLEY B/TT M F Poon · J Richards | M F Poon | J Richards | 7 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SUNSTRIDER CP Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 6 | 3.7 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SUNSTRIDER | 24.8% | 4.04 | 10 |
| 2 | 5 | EIGHTEEN CARAT | 14.9% | 6.71 | 5 |
| 3 | 3 | STAR MAC | 12.2% | 8.19 | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | HOLY LAKE | 12.2% | 8.19 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | PACKING HURRICANE | 11.7% | 8.56 | 6 |
| 6 | 2 | ILLUMINOUS | 11.5% | 8.71 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 5.9% | 16.97 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | KIMBERLEY | 4.5% | 22.31 | 9 |
| 9 | 7 | ORIENTAL SMOKE | 1.7% | 57.76 | 2 |
| 10 | 8 | AFFORDABLE | 0.6% | 156.73 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 61.5
PLACE
2 21
4 19.5
7 154.5
QUINELLA
4,7 2,228.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 54.5
2,7 604.5
4,7 596
FORECAST
4,7 2,989
TIERCE
4,7,2 19,650
TRIO
2,4,7 3,182
FIRST 4
2,3,4,7 3,382
QUARTET
4,7,2,3 115,374
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/4 1,086
7/7 1,555.5