沙田 · 2024-07-01 · 13:24
第 11場
2024-07-01沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由L Hewitson策騎、C W Chang訓練的CHING勝出，贏出N。PRAY FOR MIR獲得亞軍；BRIGHT INHERITANCE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。5.1倍大熱門SECOND TO NONE跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CHING 後段發力 1.34.98 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 10 | 14.0 | N |
| 2 | 9 | PRAY FOR MIR Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 9 | 7.5 | N |
| 3 | 8 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE 後段發力 B H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 15.0 | N |
| 4 | 10 | SUNSTRIDER 後段發力 CP A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 3 | 5.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | SMART CITY CP M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 4 | 63.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | ARIEL 早段領放 CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 13 | 6.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | SECOND TO NONE C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 5.1 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | FORTUNE SUPERSTAR 後段發力 H1 B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 6 | 30.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | TRUE GENIUS B-/H/SR1/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 1 | 46.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 10 | 5 | QUANTUM PATCH 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · P C Ng | M L Yeung | P C Ng | 12 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 2 | EIGHTEEN CARAT 後段發力 A Atzeni · C S Shum | A Atzeni | C S Shum | 11 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 12 | 4 | THE HEIR TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 5 | 5.4 | 4-3/4 |
| 13 | 11 | PERFECT PAIRING B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 106.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 14 | 13 | PRINCIPLED CP1/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 14 | 165.0 | 8-3/4 |
| — | 0 | BEATO Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | THE HEIR | 19.5% | 5.12 | 12 |
| 2 | 6 | SECOND TO NONE | 17.0% | 5.88 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 | PRAY FOR MIR | 12.7% | 7.88 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | EIGHTEEN CARAT | 11.2% | 8.93 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | ARIEL | 11.1% | 9.00 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | CHING | 8.0% | 12.56 | 1 |
| 7 | 10 | SUNSTRIDER | 6.3% | 15.91 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | QUANTUM PATCH | 5.2% | 19.24 | 10 |
| 9 | 3 | FORTUNE SUPERSTAR | 3.4% | 29.78 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | BRIGHT INHERITANCE | 2.9% | 34.51 | 3 |
| 11 | 7 | TRUE GENIUS | 1.0% | 98.92 | 9 |
| 12 | 14 | SMART CITY | 0.6% | 165.32 | 5 |
| 13 | 11 | PERFECT PAIRING | 0.6% | 174.11 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | PRINCIPLED | 0.6% | 180.27 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 148.5
PLACE
1 38.5
8 56.5
9 29
QUINELLA
1,9 508.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 391
1,9 161
8,9 258
FORECAST
1,9 1,120
TIERCE
1,9,8 13,923
TRIO
1,8,9 2,852
FIRST 4
1,8,9,10 4,729
QUARTET
1,9,8,10 121,964
全部彩池（另 4 項）
10TH DOUBLE
4/1 203
4/9 35
2ND TREBLE
7/4/1 10,577
7/4/9 1,548
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,5/1,8,9 31,738
SIX UP
3,8/6,11/8,11/7,9/4,5/1,9 46,170
8/11/11/7/4/1 2,792,990
7 [L Hewitson] —
12 [W Y So] —