沙田 · 2024-07-01 · 11:12
第 7場
2024-07-01沙田第7場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由A Atzeni策騎、P C Ng訓練的SUPER BONUS勝出，贏出1/2。NEW FUTURE FOLKS獲得亞軍；TAIHANG SCENERY獲得季軍。3.5倍大熱門NEBRASKAN跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SUPER BONUS B/TT 1.09.23 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 13 | 5.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 14 | 50.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | TAIHANG SCENERY H1/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 3 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | AFFIRM TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 10 | 7.1 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | NEBRASKAN PC Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 3.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | FLYING LUCK C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 5 | 5.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | SIGHT HAPPY K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 12 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | SUPER CHARIZZARD P L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 11 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 9 | MR VALIANT B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 6 | 9.7 | 3 |
| 10 | 2 | ACE POWER CP1 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 8 | 37.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | SEA AIR LEGEND H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 160.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | DAY DAY VICTORY XB C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 139.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | MOLLY'S WITNESS CP-/B1/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 9 | 166.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | SPORTIC WARRIOR TT1 K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 79.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | NEBRASKAN | 23.2% | 4.31 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | AFFIRM | 13.0% | 7.68 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | SIGHT HAPPY | 12.9% | 7.77 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER BONUS | 12.2% | 8.17 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | FLYING LUCK | 7.7% | 12.93 | 6 |
| 6 | 10 | TAIHANG SCENERY | 6.8% | 14.61 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | MR VALIANT | 6.1% | 16.29 | 9 |
| 8 | 8 | SPORTIC WARRIOR | 5.5% | 18.34 | 14 |
| 9 | 13 | SUPER CHARIZZARD | 4.3% | 23.46 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | ACE POWER | 4.0% | 25.13 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | NEW FUTURE FOLKS | 2.2% | 45.95 | 2 |
| 12 | 3 | SEA AIR LEGEND | 0.9% | 107.08 | 11 |
| 13 | 4 | DAY DAY VICTORY | 0.6% | 155.33 | 12 |
| 14 | 14 | MOLLY'S WITNESS | 0.5% | 198.71 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 51.5
PLACE
6 118.5
10 31
11 20
QUINELLA
6,11 1,215
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 607
6,11 307.5
10,11 76.5
FORECAST
11,6 2,059
TIERCE
11,6,10 19,262
TRIO
6,10,11 3,558
FIRST 4
6,10,11,12 4,166
QUARTET
11,6,10,12 119,507
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,8/6,10,11 735,027
6TH DOUBLE
8/6 195.5
8/11 226.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,6,11/3,7,8/Any Combination 26,111