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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 11:12

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER BONUS, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with NEW FUTURE FOLKS second and TAIHANG SCENERY third. The 3.5 favourite NEBRASKAN finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUPER BONUS B/TT 1.09.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · P C Ng 13 5.1 1/2
2 6 NEW FUTURE FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang 14 50.0 1/2
3 10 TAIHANG SCENERY H1/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 3 10.0 3/4
4 12 AFFIRM TT L Ferraris · P F Yiu 10 7.1 3/4
5 1 NEBRASKAN PC Z Purton · J Size 1 3.5 1-1/2
6 5 FLYING LUCK C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 5.5 1-3/4
7 7 SIGHT HAPPY K Teetan · D A Hayes 12 10.0 2
8 13 SUPER CHARIZZARD P L Hewitson · M Newnham 11 20.0 2-1/4
9 9 MR VALIANT B Avdulla · D J Hall 6 9.7 3
10 2 ACE POWER CP1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 37.0 4-1/4
11 3 SEA AIR LEGEND H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 160.0 4-1/4
12 4 DAY DAY VICTORY XB C L Chau · T P Yung 7 139.0 5-1/4
13 14 MOLLY'S WITNESS CP-/B1/TT K De Melo · J Richards 9 166.0 5-1/2
14 8 SPORTIC WARRIOR TT1 K C Leung · K L Man 4 79.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER BONUS2. NEW FUTURE FOLKS+0.5L3. TAIHANG SCENERY+0.75L4. AFFIRM+0.75L5. NEBRASKAN+1.5L6. FLYING LUCK+1.75L7. SIGHT HAPPY+2L8. SUPER CHARIZZARD+2.25L9. MR VALIANT+3L10. ACE POWER+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick NEBRASKAN (23.2%) finished 5th — the winner SUPER BONUS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 NEBRASKAN 23.2% 4.31 5
2 12 AFFIRM 13.0% 7.68 4
3 7 SIGHT HAPPY 12.9% 7.77 7
4 11 SUPER BONUS 12.2% 8.17 1
5 5 FLYING LUCK 7.7% 12.93 6
6 10 TAIHANG SCENERY 6.8% 14.61 3
7 9 MR VALIANT 6.1% 16.29 9
8 8 SPORTIC WARRIOR 5.5% 18.34 14
9 13 SUPER CHARIZZARD 4.3% 23.46 8
10 2 ACE POWER 4.0% 25.13 10
11 6 NEW FUTURE FOLKS 2.2% 45.95 2
12 3 SEA AIR LEGEND 0.9% 107.08 11
13 4 DAY DAY VICTORY 0.6% 155.33 12
14 14 MOLLY'S WITNESS 0.5% 198.71 13
NEBRASKANAFFIRMSIGHT HAPPYSUPER BONUS — wonFLYING LUCKTAIHANG SCENERYMR VALIANTSPORTIC WARRIORSUPER CHARIZZARDACE POWERNEW FUTURE FOLKSSEA AIR LEGENDDAY DAY VICTORYMOLLY'S WITNESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 51.5

PLACE

6 118.5

10 31

11 20

QUINELLA

6,11 1,215

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 607

6,11 307.5

10,11 76.5

FORECAST

11,6 2,059

TIERCE

11,6,10 19,262

TRIO

6,10,11 3,558

FIRST 4

6,10,11,12 4,166

QUARTET

11,6,10,12 119,507

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,8/6,10,11 735,027

6TH DOUBLE

8/6 195.5

8/11 226.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,6,11/3,7,8/Any Combination 26,111