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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 08:32

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HARMONY N HOME, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 3/4, with PERFECT PEACH second and SPEEDSTAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SPEEDSTAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HARMONY N HOME Closed strongly 1.22.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 7 72.0 3/4
2 10 PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly P-/B2/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 8 6.1 3/4
3 11 SPEEDSTAR Closed strongly B H Bowman · D J Hall 1 3.0 1-3/4
4 7 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 13 16.0 2-1/2
4 9 JAZZ CLUB Z Purton · K L Man 5 4.2 2-1/2
6 13 CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 10 36.0 3
7 8 NOBLE ONE B C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 40.0 3-1/4
8 3 GO HERO Led early B/TT B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 4 18.0 3-1/4
9 2 E GLORY Closed strongly B/TT1 K C Leung · W K Mo 6 35.0 3-1/2
10 6 MAXIMIZE HEART B2 A Atzeni · C H Yip 3 19.0 5
11 12 MORE RICE TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 11 17.0 5-1/2
12 14 EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 12.0 9
13 5 HEARTY WISH CP H Bentley · D J Whyte 9 13.0 10
14 1 MANYTHANKS FOREVER B/TT K De Melo · J Richards 14 84.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N HOME2. PERFECT PEACH+0.75L3. SPEEDSTAR+1.75L4. MEDIC ELITE+2.5L4. JAZZ CLUB+2.5L6. CHIRON+3L7. NOBLE ONE+3.25L8. GO HERO+3.25L9. E GLORY+3.5L10. MAXIMIZE HEART+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SPEEDSTAR (20.1%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY N HOME was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SPEEDSTAR 20.1% 4.96 3
2 9 JAZZ CLUB 16.7% 6.00 4
3 10 PERFECT PEACH 9.9% 10.15 2
4 3 GO HERO 8.0% 12.53 8
5 8 NOBLE ONE 7.7% 13.03 7
6 12 MORE RICE 6.5% 15.31 11
7 2 E GLORY 5.7% 17.49 9
8 5 HEARTY WISH 5.6% 17.79 13
9 13 CHIRON 5.0% 20.10 6
10 7 MEDIC ELITE 4.5% 22.08 4
11 14 EAGLE RUN 3.5% 28.25 12
12 6 MAXIMIZE HEART 3.1% 32.36 10
13 4 HARMONY N HOME 2.9% 34.44 1
14 1 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 0.8% 128.55 14
SPEEDSTARJAZZ CLUBPERFECT PEACHGO HERONOBLE ONEMORE RICEE GLORYHEARTY WISHCHIRONMEDIC ELITEEAGLE RUNMAXIMIZE HEARTHARMONY N HOME — wonMANYTHANKS FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 721

PLACE

4 157

10 19.5

11 13

QUINELLA

4,10 2,525

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 620

4,11 291.5

10,11 43

FORECAST

4,10 5,959

TIERCE

4,10,11 37,763

TRIO

4,10,11 1,940

FIRST 4

4,7,10,11 2,477

4,9,10,11 566

QUARTET

4,10,11,7 91,174

4,10,11,9 22,473

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/4 7,490

5/10 118.5