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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 20:13

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.00
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MIGHTY STRENGTH Closed strongly XB 1.22.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu 3 49.0 SH
2 9 CIRCUIT MIGHTY Closed strongly B-/TT K C Leung · K L Man 4 18.0 SH
3 1 RUN RUN TIMING TT H Bentley · C H Yip 2 8.3 N
4 3 SUPER INFINITY Closed strongly H Bowman · M Newnham 5 2.3 1/2
5 2 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR Z Purton · P C Ng 7 3.9 1-1/4
6 12 CALL ME SUPREME Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · C W Chang 10 18.0 1-3/4
7 6 ALWAYS FLUKE H-/CP/XB1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 9.7 3
8 10 FIREFOOT Closed strongly TT1 K De Melo · W Y So 13 146.0 4-1/4
9 4 GOLDEN BULL Led early XB/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 9 21.0 4-3/4
10 11 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 11.0 5
11 13 VERBIER Closed strongly B A Badel · C Fownes 11 97.0 6
12 5 SMASHING EXPRESS P-/E B Avdulla · J Size 6 165.0 6-3/4
13 14 SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 14 71.0 7-3/4
14 8 STARMEN CP1/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 12 171.0 10-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MIGHTY STRENGTH, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with CIRCUIT MIGHTY second and RUN RUN TIMING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite SUPER INFINITY finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIGHTY STRENGTH—2. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+0.1L3. RUN RUN TIMING+0.05L4. SUPER INFINITY+0.5L5. FIGHTING MACHINE+1.25L6. CALL ME SUPREME+1.75L7. ALWAYS FLUKE+3L8. FIREFOOT+4.25L9. GOLDEN BULL+4.75L10. HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPER INFINITY (25.3%) finished 4th — the winner MIGHTY STRENGTH was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SUPER INFINITY 25.3% 3.95 4
2 2 FIGHTING MACHINE 15.5% 6.43 5
3 6 ALWAYS FLUKE 11.5% 8.72 7
4 1 RUN RUN TIMING 10.1% 9.90 3
5 4 GOLDEN BULL 9.4% 10.59 9
6 9 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 7.2% 13.87 2
7 11 HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 6.1% 16.30 10
8 14 SPEEDY CHARIOT 3.9% 25.66 13
9 12 CALL ME SUPREME 3.6% 27.46 6
10 7 MIGHTY STRENGTH 2.6% 38.47 1
11 13 VERBIER 1.4% 73.23 11
12 5 SMASHING EXPRESS 1.3% 75.42 12
13 8 STARMEN 1.2% 85.00 14
14 10 FIREFOOT 0.8% 130.53 8
SUPER INFINITYFIGHTING MACHINEALWAYS FLUKERUN RUN TIMINGGOLDEN BULLCIRCUIT MIGHTYHAPPYDEARHAPPYDEERSPEEDY CHARIOTCALL ME SUPREMEMIGHTY STRENGTH — wonVERBIERSMASHING EXPRESSSTARMENFIREFOOT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 496.5

PLACE

1 23

7 90

9 47

QUINELLA

7,9 3,261

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 404.5

1,9 196.5

7,9 742

FORECAST

7,9 6,174

TIERCE

7,9,1 49,956

TRIO

1,7,9 5,190

FIRST 4

1,3,7,9 2,932

QUARTET

7,9,1,3 118,010

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,11/1,7,9 381,955

8TH DOUBLE

11/7 5,479

11/9 400