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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 19:40

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB/CP1 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K H Ting 6 15.0 NOSE
2 8 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT H Bowman · W K Mo 4 3.0 NOSE
3 7 GRAND BOSS Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 5 6.1 2-3/4
4 10 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP-/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 11 18.0 3
5 4 EMBRACES Closed strongly TT C L Chau · J Richards 1 13.0 3
6 5 SOLID WIN Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 9 9.8 3-1/4
7 12 FIGHT TIME B/TT B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 16.0 3-1/4
8 14 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly V-/B2/TT1 A Badel · P C Ng 10 13.0 4-1/4
9 9 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 25.0 4-3/4
10 3 PINS PRINCE Closed strongly H/P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 14 75.0 7-3/4
11 1 MY FLYING ANGEL CP Z Purton · F C Lor 13 10.0 11-1/4
12 6 WAR OF COURAGE Led early B K H Chan · K L Man 7 15.0 11-1/2
13 2 MARADO Closed strongly B2 L Hewitson · W Y So 2 19.0 15
14 13 RIVER VIEWS B2 Y L Chung · T P Yung 12 43.0 18-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SMILING COLLECTOR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K H Ting, won by NOSE, with FORERUNNER second and GRAND BOSS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite FORERUNNER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMILING COLLECTOR—2. FORERUNNER+0.05L3. GRAND BOSS+2.75L4. HAPPY DAILY+3L5. EMBRACES+3L6. SOLID WIN+3.25L7. FIGHT TIME+3.25L8. MR ALADDIN+4.25L9. GALLANT CROWN+4.75L10. PINS PRINCE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MY FLYING ANGEL (18.5%) finished 11th — the winner SMILING COLLECTOR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MY FLYING ANGEL 18.5% 5.41 11
2 8 FORERUNNER 15.0% 6.68 2
3 4 EMBRACES 13.2% 7.57 5
4 11 SMILING COLLECTOR 8.4% 11.84 1
5 6 WAR OF COURAGE 5.9% 16.88 12
6 14 MR ALADDIN 5.6% 17.92 8
7 9 GALLANT CROWN 5.2% 19.33 9
8 5 SOLID WIN 5.0% 20.02 6
9 2 MARADO 4.9% 20.54 13
10 12 FIGHT TIME 4.2% 24.04 7
11 10 HAPPY DAILY 4.0% 25.23 4
12 7 GRAND BOSS 3.8% 26.16 3
13 3 PINS PRINCE 3.8% 26.29 10
14 13 RIVER VIEWS 2.6% 39.01 14
MY FLYING ANGELFORERUNNEREMBRACESSMILING COLLECTOR — wonWAR OF COURAGEMR ALADDINGALLANT CROWNSOLID WINMARADOFIGHT TIMEHAPPY DAILYGRAND BOSSPINS PRINCERIVER VIEWS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 155.5

PLACE

7 17

8 15.5

11 39.5

QUINELLA

8,11 268.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 38

7,11 164

8,11 98

FORECAST

11,8 792

TIERCE

11,8,7 3,664

TRIO

7,8,11 512

FIRST 4

7,8,10,11 1,383

QUARTET

11,8,7,10 40,976

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

11/8 32.5

11/11 1,072