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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 11:41

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SMILING COLLECTOR, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K H Ting, won by NOSE, with FORERUNNER second and GRAND BOSS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite FORERUNNER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SMILING COLLECTOR Closed strongly XB/CP1 1.21.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K H Ting 6 15.0 NOSE
2 8 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT H Bowman · W K Mo 4 3.0 NOSE
3 7 GRAND BOSS Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 5 6.1 2-3/4
4 10 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly CP-/TT C Y Ho · C H Yip 11 18.0 3
5 4 EMBRACES Closed strongly TT C L Chau · J Richards 1 13.0 3
6 5 SOLID WIN Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 9 9.8 3-1/4
7 12 FIGHT TIME B/TT B Avdulla · D J Hall 3 16.0 3-1/4
8 14 MR ALADDIN Closed strongly V-/B2/TT1 A Badel · P C Ng 10 13.0 4-1/4
9 9 GALLANT CROWN B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 25.0 4-3/4
10 3 PINS PRINCE Closed strongly H/P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 14 75.0 7-3/4
11 1 MY FLYING ANGEL CP Z Purton · F C Lor 13 10.0 11-1/4
12 6 WAR OF COURAGE Led early B K H Chan · K L Man 7 15.0 11-1/2
13 2 MARADO Closed strongly B2 L Hewitson · W Y So 2 19.0 15
14 13 RIVER VIEWS B2 Y L Chung · T P Yung 12 43.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMILING COLLECTOR2. FORERUNNER+0.05L3. GRAND BOSS+2.75L4. HAPPY DAILY+3L5. EMBRACES+3L6. SOLID WIN+3.25L7. FIGHT TIME+3.25L8. MR ALADDIN+4.25L9. GALLANT CROWN+4.75L10. PINS PRINCE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MY FLYING ANGEL (18.5%) finished 11th — the winner SMILING COLLECTOR was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MY FLYING ANGEL 18.5% 5.41 11
2 8 FORERUNNER 15.0% 6.68 2
3 4 EMBRACES 13.2% 7.57 5
4 11 SMILING COLLECTOR 8.4% 11.84 1
5 6 WAR OF COURAGE 5.9% 16.88 12
6 14 MR ALADDIN 5.6% 17.92 8
7 9 GALLANT CROWN 5.2% 19.33 9
8 5 SOLID WIN 5.0% 20.02 6
9 2 MARADO 4.9% 20.54 13
10 12 FIGHT TIME 4.2% 24.04 7
11 10 HAPPY DAILY 4.0% 25.23 4
12 7 GRAND BOSS 3.8% 26.16 3
13 3 PINS PRINCE 3.8% 26.29 10
14 13 RIVER VIEWS 2.6% 39.01 14
MY FLYING ANGELFORERUNNEREMBRACESSMILING COLLECTOR — wonWAR OF COURAGEMR ALADDINGALLANT CROWNSOLID WINMARADOFIGHT TIMEHAPPY DAILYGRAND BOSSPINS PRINCERIVER VIEWS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 155.5

PLACE

7 17

8 15.5

11 39.5

QUINELLA

8,11 268.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 38

7,11 164

8,11 98

FORECAST

11,8 792

TIERCE

11,8,7 3,664

TRIO

7,8,11 512

FIRST 4

7,8,10,11 1,383

QUARTET

11,8,7,10 40,976

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

11/8 32.5

11/11 1,072