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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 17:01

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly XB 1.22.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng 3 5.5 1-1/2
2 11 PRECISION GOAL Closed strongly TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 10.0 1-1/2
3 4 AROMATICA Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W Y So 2 7.8 1-3/4
4 6 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly PC-/XB/B2/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 18.0 2-1/2
5 14 DRAGON KINGDOM Led early K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 20.0 2-3/4
6 13 HO HO STAR Closed strongly H K C Leung · C H Yip 5 14.0 2-3/4
7 8 SMART FOLKS SR-/B M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 32.0 3
8 9 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham 9 23.0 3
9 1 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly V-/B2 H Bowman · P F Yiu 12 4.1 3-1/2
10 10 CHARMANDER K De Melo · D J Hall 10 4.9 3-1/2
11 3 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Size 14 15.0 5-3/4
12 5 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly XB/CP1/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 13 94.0 6-1/4
13 7 YOO YOO KNIGHT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 41.0 9-1/4
14 12 GENERAL ACE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 63.0 13-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GANGNAM STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with PRECISION GOAL second and AROMATICA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite CHILLI BABA finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GANGNAM STAR—2. PRECISION GOAL+1.5L3. AROMATICA+1.75L4. ASIAN ONE+2.5L5. DRAGON KINGDOM+2.75L6. HO HO STAR+2.75L7. SMART FOLKS+3L8. RIGHT HONOURABLE+3L9. CHILLI BABA+3.5L10. CHARMANDER+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PRECISION GOAL (18.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GANGNAM STAR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 PRECISION GOAL 18.3% 5.47 2
2 1 CHILLI BABA 11.4% 8.77 9
3 6 ASIAN ONE 10.6% 9.45 4
4 3 NOBLE WIN 8.5% 11.77 11
5 13 HO HO STAR 8.3% 12.07 6
6 4 AROMATICA 7.9% 12.64 3
7 2 GANGNAM STAR 7.3% 13.69 1
8 7 YOO YOO KNIGHT 6.2% 16.21 13
9 10 CHARMANDER 6.0% 16.68 10
10 14 DRAGON KINGDOM 4.8% 20.89 5
11 12 GENERAL ACE 4.1% 24.29 14
12 9 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.6% 38.89 8
13 8 SMART FOLKS 2.1% 48.00 7
14 5 WINNING SEVEN 2.0% 49.31 12
PRECISION GOALCHILLI BABAASIAN ONENOBLE WINHO HO STARAROMATICAGANGNAM STAR — wonYOO YOO KNIGHTCHARMANDERDRAGON KINGDOMGENERAL ACERIGHT HONOURABLESMART FOLKSWINNING SEVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 55

PLACE

2 21.5

4 20

11 34

QUINELLA

2,11 313.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 65.5

2,11 104

4,11 141

FORECAST

2,11 624

TIERCE

2,11,4 2,786

TRIO

2,4,11 545

FIRST 4

2,4,6,11 1,009

QUARTET

2,11,4,6 21,704

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/2,4,11 113,915

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 3,679

4/11 2,156