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Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 09:02

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GANGNAM STAR, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with PRECISION GOAL second and AROMATICA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite CHILLI BABA finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.22.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly XB 1.22.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng 3 5.5 1-1/2
2 11 PRECISION GOAL Closed strongly TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 10.0 1-1/2
3 4 AROMATICA Closed strongly TT H Bentley · W Y So 2 7.8 1-3/4
4 6 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly PC-/XB/B2/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 18.0 2-1/2
5 14 DRAGON KINGDOM Led early K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 20.0 2-3/4
6 13 HO HO STAR Closed strongly H K C Leung · C H Yip 5 14.0 2-3/4
7 8 SMART FOLKS SR-/B M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 32.0 3
8 9 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham 9 23.0 3
9 1 CHILLI BABA Closed strongly V-/B2 H Bowman · P F Yiu 12 4.1 3-1/2
10 10 CHARMANDER K De Melo · D J Hall 10 4.9 3-1/2
11 3 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB/TT A Hamelin · J Size 14 15.0 5-3/4
12 5 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly XB/CP1/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 13 94.0 6-1/4
13 7 YOO YOO KNIGHT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 41.0 9-1/4
14 12 GENERAL ACE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 63.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GANGNAM STAR2. PRECISION GOAL+1.5L3. AROMATICA+1.75L4. ASIAN ONE+2.5L5. DRAGON KINGDOM+2.75L6. HO HO STAR+2.75L7. SMART FOLKS+3L8. RIGHT HONOURABLE+3L9. CHILLI BABA+3.5L10. CHARMANDER+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PRECISION GOAL (18.3%) finished 2nd — the winner GANGNAM STAR was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 PRECISION GOAL 18.3% 5.47 2
2 1 CHILLI BABA 11.4% 8.77 9
3 6 ASIAN ONE 10.6% 9.45 4
4 3 NOBLE WIN 8.5% 11.77 11
5 13 HO HO STAR 8.3% 12.07 6
6 4 AROMATICA 7.9% 12.64 3
7 2 GANGNAM STAR 7.3% 13.69 1
8 7 YOO YOO KNIGHT 6.2% 16.21 13
9 10 CHARMANDER 6.0% 16.68 10
10 14 DRAGON KINGDOM 4.8% 20.89 5
11 12 GENERAL ACE 4.1% 24.29 14
12 9 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.6% 38.89 8
13 8 SMART FOLKS 2.1% 48.00 7
14 5 WINNING SEVEN 2.0% 49.31 12
PRECISION GOALCHILLI BABAASIAN ONENOBLE WINHO HO STARAROMATICAGANGNAM STAR — wonYOO YOO KNIGHTCHARMANDERDRAGON KINGDOMGENERAL ACERIGHT HONOURABLESMART FOLKSWINNING SEVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 55

PLACE

2 21.5

4 20

11 34

QUINELLA

2,11 313.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 65.5

2,11 104

4,11 141

FORECAST

2,11 624

TIERCE

2,11,4 2,786

TRIO

2,4,11 545

FIRST 4

2,4,6,11 1,009

QUARTET

2,11,4,6 21,704

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/2,4,11 113,915

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 3,679

4/11 2,156