Sha Tin · 2024-07-01 · 10:39

Race 6

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course B 9 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-07-01 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with TOMODACHI KOKOROE second and SUPERB BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.20.71

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.20.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	9	118 lb	4.1	SH
2	3	TOMODACHI KOKOROE Led early TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	6	129 lb	68.0	SH
3	7	SUPERB BOY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	5	122 lb	4.1	2
4	5	SUPREME LUCKY Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	8	123 lb	7.9	2-1/4
5	1	ATULLIBIGEAL Closed strongly B/H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	4	135 lb	8.7	3-1/4
6	9	GORGEOUS WIN TT L Hewitson · C S Shum	L Hewitson	C S Shum	7	118 lb	6.5	3-1/2
7	2	FLAMING RABBIT SR/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte	L Ferraris	D J Whyte	1	133 lb	22.0	4
8	4	WONDER KIT B C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	3	126 lb	5.1	4-1/4
9	6	KEEFY K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	2	123 lb	13.0	10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick WONDER KIT (30.9%) finished 8th — the winner CHIU CHOW SPIRIT was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	WONDER KIT	30.9%	3.24	8	5.1
2	6	KEEFY	12.3%	8.12	9	13.0
3	9	GORGEOUS WIN	12.2%	8.18	6	6.5
4	1	ATULLIBIGEAL	12.1%	8.29	5	8.7
5	7	SUPERB BOY	12.0%	8.31	3	4.1
6	5	SUPREME LUCKY	7.4%	13.52	4	7.9
7	8	CHIU CHOW SPIRIT	6.9%	14.39	1	4.1
8	2	FLAMING RABBIT	3.2%	31.09	7	22.0
9	3	TOMODACHI KOKOROE	2.9%	34.23	2	68.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 41

PLACE

3 139

7 17.5

8 15.5

QUINELLA

3,8 1,147

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 484

3,8 315.5

7,8 45.5

FORECAST

8,3 1,754

TIERCE

8,3,7 14,005

TRIO

3,7,8 1,843

FIRST 4

3,5,7,8 2,904

QUARTET

8,3,7,5 81,555

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/3 904

1/8 424.5

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