沙田 · 2024-10-20 · 05:20
第 2場
2024-10-20沙田第2場，Class 4，途程1400米。由M Chadwick策騎、M Newnham訓練的WIN SPEED勝出，贏出1-1/2。LEGEND ST PAUL'S獲得亞軍；CORLEONE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.1倍大熱門FORERUNNER跑獲第9名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | WIN SPEED 後段發力 B 1.21.52 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 12 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | LEGEND ST PAUL'S 後段發力 K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | CORLEONE 後段發力 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 1 | 29.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | AMAZING RUN 後段發力 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | AFFIRM 早段領放 CP-/V1/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 14 | 4.9 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE 後段發力 CP-/B1/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 6 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | LUCKY TOUCH 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 7 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 3 | DREAM PURSUER B L Ferraris · K L Man | L Ferraris | K L Man | 2 | 58.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | FORERUNNER 後段發力 TT Z Purton · W K Mo | Z Purton | W K Mo | 9 | 2.1 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | SKYEY BLUE TT Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 3 | 192.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | ROMAN CROWN K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 4 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 10 | HARMONY N HOME M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 8 | 20.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 2 | FASHION LEGEND TT2 A Atzeni · D Eustace | A Atzeni | D Eustace | 13 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 14 | 11 | FIREFOOT TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 10 | 122.0 | 7-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FORERUNNER | 18.4% | 5.44 | 9 |
| 2 | 5 | CORLEONE | 12.9% | 7.77 | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | AFFIRM | 10.9% | 9.20 | 5 |
| 4 | 14 | WIN SPEED | 9.7% | 10.27 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | LEGEND ST PAUL'S | 9.4% | 10.64 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | HARMONY N HOME | 6.3% | 16.00 | 12 |
| 7 | 8 | LUCKY TOUCH | 6.2% | 16.01 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING RUN | 5.9% | 16.83 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | ROMAN CROWN | 5.8% | 17.36 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | CALIFORNIA MOXIE | 5.5% | 18.03 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | DREAM PURSUER | 3.0% | 33.30 | 8 |
| 12 | 2 | FASHION LEGEND | 2.5% | 39.95 | 13 |
| 13 | 13 | SKYEY BLUE | 1.8% | 54.35 | 10 |
| 14 | 11 | FIREFOOT | 1.7% | 60.02 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 215.5
PLACE
5 61.5
7 54.5
14 51.5
QUINELLA
7,14 1,756.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 662.5
5,14 647
7,14 464.5
FORECAST
14,7 4,537
TIERCE
14,7,5 123,338
TRIO
5,7,14 18,094
FIRST 4
4,5,7,14 25,416
QUARTET
14,7,5,4 550,931
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE
8/7 151
8/14 1,441.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,8/5,7,14 1,044,098