沙田 · 2024-11-03
第 4場
2024-11-03沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1200米。由K C Leung策騎、W K Mo訓練的SUGAR BALL勝出，贏出SH。LIFELINE EXPRESS獲得亞軍；CHEERFUL WORLD獲得季軍。4.0倍大熱門LIFELINE EXPRESS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUGAR BALL H-/TT 1.09.47 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 5 | 5.1 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | LIFELINE EXPRESS E1 H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 3 | 4.0 | SH |
| 3 | 4 | CHEERFUL WORLD L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 4 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | FLYING DOUBLE SR1 Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 1 | 5.1 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | CIRCUIT FIERY CP1/TT Y L Chung · T P Yung | Y L Chung | T P Yung | 11 | 61.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 6 | 7.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | VANTASTIC CHOICE K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 7 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR B E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 12 | 31.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | COMMANDING MISSILE M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 10 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | ALWAYS FLUKE B- H Bentley · M Newnham | H Bentley | M Newnham | 2 | 6.8 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | GALLANT EPOCH B1/TT1 L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 8 | 22.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | NOT USUAL DRAGON B1/SR1/TT1 B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 9 | 155.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | FLYING DOUBLE | 36.9% | 2.71 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | LIFELINE EXPRESS | 10.0% | 9.99 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR | 9.5% | 10.52 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | SUGAR BALL | 8.4% | 11.96 | 1 |
| 5 | 3 | METRO WARRIOR | 6.7% | 14.99 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | CHEERFUL WORLD | 6.1% | 16.28 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 6.0% | 16.67 | 10 |
| 8 | 12 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 5.0% | 20.19 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | GALLANT EPOCH | 4.8% | 20.84 | 11 |
| 10 | 10 | CIRCUIT FIERY | 3.1% | 32.20 | 5 |
| 11 | 7 | NOT USUAL DRAGON | 2.0% | 50.74 | 12 |
| 12 | 9 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 1.6% | 63.18 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 51.5
PLACE
1 16.5
2 17.5
4 32.5
QUINELLA
1,2 111.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 45
1,4 78.5
2,4 77
FORECAST
2,1 241
TIERCE
2,1,4 1,421
TRIO
1,2,4 283
FIRST 4
1,2,4,5 318
QUARTET
2,1,4,5 6,509
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,11/1,2,4 18,982
3RD DOUBLE
1/1 79
1/2 308.5