沙田 · 2024-11-03
第 6場
2024-11-03沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米。由C Y Ho策騎、C Fownes訓練的FLYING LUCK勝出，贏出N。SOLID WIN獲得亞軍；SUNDAY'S SERENADE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.5倍大熱門YUEN LONG ELITE跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FLYING LUCK 後段發力 B1/H1/TT 1.22.12 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | SOLID WIN TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 3 | 8.3 | N |
| 3 | 12 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE 後段發力 B/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 5 | 69.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | VIEW OF THE WORLD 後段發力 TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 4.5 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | ENDEARED 後段發力 XB B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | MR ENERGIA B H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 4 | 4.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | YUEN LONG ELITE 後段發力 H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 8 | 3.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | EVER SMART H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 2 | 63.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SATIRICAL GLORY 後段發力 SR/XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 13 | 50.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | MATSU VICTOR 後段發力 B L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 12 | 62.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | DOUBLE WIN XB/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 7 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | MILES AWAY 早段領放 CP A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 6 | 103.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES 後段發力 B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 14 | 82.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 1 | ARIEL CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 9 | 23.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MR ENERGIA | 13.9% | 7.22 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 | VIEW OF THE WORLD | 13.8% | 7.23 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | YUEN LONG ELITE | 12.6% | 7.93 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | MATSU VICTOR | 10.3% | 9.73 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | SOLID WIN | 9.4% | 10.65 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | FLYING LUCK | 8.2% | 12.13 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | ENDEARED | 6.0% | 16.73 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | DOUBLE WIN | 5.3% | 19.04 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | SATIRICAL GLORY | 4.8% | 20.72 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 3 |
| 11 | 1 | ARIEL | 3.8% | 26.38 | 14 |
| 12 | 14 | EVER SMART | 3.2% | 31.74 | 8 |
| 13 | 13 | MILES AWAY | 2.3% | 43.14 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES | 1.8% | 55.65 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 105
PLACE
8 23
11 35
12 143.5
QUINELLA
8,11 471
QUINELLA PLACE
8,11 132
8,12 542
11,12 983.5
FORECAST
11,8 1,125
TIERCE
11,8,12 30,951
TRIO
8,11,12 7,433
FIRST 4
5,8,11,12 8,299
QUARTET
11,8,12,5 279,826
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,11/8,11,12 300,232
5TH DOUBLE
11/8 91.5
11/11 1,640
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,4/4,8,11/Any Combination 477