Sha Tin · 2024-11-03
Race 6
Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-03 was Class 4 over 1400m. FLYING LUCK, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with SOLID WIN second and SUNDAY'S SERENADE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite YUEN LONG ELITE finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FLYING LUCK Closed strongly B1/H1/TT 1.22.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | SOLID WIN TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 3 | 8.3 | N |
| 3 | 12 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · J Richards | K Teetan | J Richards | 5 | 69.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 5 | VIEW OF THE WORLD Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 4.5 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | ENDEARED Closed strongly XB B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | MR ENERGIA B H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 4 | 4.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | YUEN LONG ELITE Closed strongly H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 8 | 3.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 14 | EVER SMART H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 2 | 63.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SATIRICAL GLORY Closed strongly SR/XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 13 | 50.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | MATSU VICTOR Closed strongly B L Ferraris · K W Lui | L Ferraris | K W Lui | 12 | 62.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | DOUBLE WIN XB/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 7 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 13 | MILES AWAY Led early CP A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 6 | 103.0 | 5 |
| 13 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 14 | 82.0 | 7 |
| 14 | 1 | ARIEL CP/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 9 | 23.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MR ENERGIA | 13.9% | 7.22 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 | VIEW OF THE WORLD | 13.8% | 7.23 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | YUEN LONG ELITE | 12.6% | 7.93 | 7 |
| 4 | 9 | MATSU VICTOR | 10.3% | 9.73 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | SOLID WIN | 9.4% | 10.65 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | FLYING LUCK | 8.2% | 12.13 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | ENDEARED | 6.0% | 16.73 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | DOUBLE WIN | 5.3% | 19.04 | 11 |
| 9 | 4 | SATIRICAL GLORY | 4.8% | 20.72 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | SUNDAY'S SERENADE | 4.7% | 21.35 | 3 |
| 11 | 1 | ARIEL | 3.8% | 26.38 | 14 |
| 12 | 14 | EVER SMART | 3.2% | 31.74 | 8 |
| 13 | 13 | MILES AWAY | 2.3% | 43.14 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | CELTIC TIMES | 1.8% | 55.65 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 105
PLACE
8 23
11 35
12 143.5
QUINELLA
8,11 471
QUINELLA PLACE
8,11 132
8,12 542
11,12 983.5
FORECAST
11,8 1,125
TIERCE
11,8,12 30,951
TRIO
8,11,12 7,433
FIRST 4
5,8,11,12 8,299
QUARTET
11,8,12,5 279,826
All pools (3 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,11/8,11,12 300,232
5TH DOUBLE
11/8 91.5
11/11 1,640
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
1,2,4/4,8,11/Any Combination 477