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Sha Tin · 2024-11-03

Race 2

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-03 was Class 4 over 1200m. GENEVA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with PACKING ANGEL second and GREAT SPIRIT third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GENEVA 1.08.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 3 1.6 1/2
2 8 PACKING ANGEL TT Z Purton · K W Lui 7 7.5 1/2
3 10 GREAT SPIRIT M F Poon · C H Yip 1 6.3 1-1/2
4 7 OFFROAD MASTER B1 Y L Chung · W K Mo 4 66.0 2-1/4
5 9 WINNING LION CP1/TT1 K C Leung · C S Shum 8 37.0 5
6 11 SOLAR UP H/P/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 5 39.0 5-1/2
7 5 ANOTHER WORLD L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 128.0 5-3/4
8 12 SPICY SPANGLE TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 6 13.0 6-1/4
9 3 BEAUTY MISSILE PC A Hamelin · F C Lor 9 12.0 6-3/4
10 2 GOOD LUCK WIN B-/TT B Thompson · K H Ting 10 73.0 7
11 6 CARRYON SMILING H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 2 147.0 7-1/2
12 4 COLONEL B L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 26.0 9-3/4
0 VICTOR THE RAPID C L Chau · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GENEVA2. PACKING ANGEL+0.5L3. GREAT SPIRIT+1.5L4. OFFROAD MASTER+2.25L5. WINNING LION+5L6. SOLAR UP+5.5L7. ANOTHER WORLD+5.75L8. SPICY SPANGLE+6.25L9. BEAUTY MISSILE+6.75L10. GOOD LUCK WIN+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GENEVA (28.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GENEVA 28.7% 3.48 1
2 10 GREAT SPIRIT 23.2% 4.31 3
3 8 PACKING ANGEL 15.6% 6.40 2
4 12 SPICY SPANGLE 8.6% 11.56 8
5 4 COLONEL 6.3% 15.94 12
6 3 BEAUTY MISSILE 5.1% 19.46 9
7 5 ANOTHER WORLD 3.4% 29.30 7
8 7 OFFROAD MASTER 2.7% 37.65 4
9 9 WINNING LION 2.6% 39.19 5
10 11 SOLAR UP 2.4% 41.31 6
11 2 GOOD LUCK WIN 0.7% 134.03 10
12 6 CARRYON SMILING 0.6% 162.25 11
GENEVA — wonGREAT SPIRITPACKING ANGELSPICY SPANGLECOLONELBEAUTY MISSILEANOTHER WORLDOFFROAD MASTERWINNING LIONSOLAR UPGOOD LUCK WINCARRYON SMILING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 11

8 20.5

10 14.5

QUINELLA

1,8 57

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 26.5

1,10 17.5

8,10 50.5

FORECAST

1,8 86

TIERCE

1,8,10 221

TRIO

1,8,10 71

FIRST 4

1,7,8,10 578

QUARTET

1,8,10,7 4,444

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/1 191.5

9/8 60.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,9/1,8,10 7,889