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Sha Tin · 2024-11-03

Race 7

Group 3 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-03 was Group 3 over 1800m. ENSUED, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with LA CITY BLANCHE second and CHANCHENG GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite MASSIVE SOVEREIGN finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.46.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 ENSUED Closed strongly 1.46.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 13 11.0 3/4
2 8 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 4 61.0 3/4
3 4 CHANCHENG GLORY Closed strongly V/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 6.6 2-1/2
4 7 SWORD POINT CP K C Leung · F C Lor 10 11.0 2-3/4
5 2 NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly V/TT C L Chau · P F Yiu 1 37.0 3
6 3 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN Closed strongly Z Purton · C H Yip 2 2.4 3
7 1 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 6 10.0 3-1/4
8 5 ENCOUNTERED Closed strongly B L Ferraris · D J Hall 8 42.0 3-1/2
9 13 KARMA Closed strongly TT A Badel · C Fownes 12 4.9 3-3/4
10 6 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 14 38.0 4
11 10 SENOR TOBA TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 3 61.0 4-1/2
12 9 MOMENTS IN TIME TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 11 20.0 4-3/4
13 12 FLAMING RABBIT CP-/SR-/TT- Y L Chung · D J Whyte 5 156.0 7-1/4
14 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B M F Poon · F C Lor 9 193.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENSUED2. LA CITY BLANCHE+0.75L3. CHANCHENG GLORY+2.5L4. SWORD POINT+2.75L5. NIMBLE NIMBUS+3L6. MASSIVE SOVEREIGN+3L7. BEAUTY JOY+3.25L8. ENCOUNTERED+3.5L9. KARMA+3.75L10. FIVE G PATCH+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MASSIVE SOVEREIGN (18.4%) finished 6th — the winner ENSUED was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MASSIVE SOVEREIGN 18.4% 5.42 6
2 4 CHANCHENG GLORY 15.5% 6.47 3
3 13 KARMA 14.8% 6.74 9
4 1 BEAUTY JOY 9.2% 10.85 7
5 14 ENSUED 7.5% 13.42 1
6 6 FIVE G PATCH 6.0% 16.65 10
7 7 SWORD POINT 5.8% 17.19 4
8 9 MOMENTS IN TIME 5.7% 17.69 12
9 2 NIMBLE NIMBUS 4.8% 20.95 5
10 8 LA CITY BLANCHE 3.4% 29.49 2
11 10 SENOR TOBA 2.9% 34.17 11
12 5 ENCOUNTERED 2.5% 40.08 8
13 11 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 2.1% 46.62 14
14 12 FLAMING RABBIT 1.4% 72.31 13
MASSIVE SOVEREIGNCHANCHENG GLORYKARMABEAUTY JOYENSUED — wonFIVE G PATCHSWORD POINTMOMENTS IN TIMENIMBLE NIMBUSLA CITY BLANCHESENOR TOBAENCOUNTEREDALL FOR ST PAUL'SFLAMING RABBIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 117.5

PLACE

4 18

8 104

14 33.5

QUINELLA

8,14 2,841

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 341

4,14 91

8,14 698

FORECAST

14,8 5,550

TIERCE

14,8,4 32,871

TRIO

4,8,14 3,640

FIRST 4

4,7,8,14 8,890

QUARTET

14,8,4,7 251,588

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

11/8 1,167

11/14 2,534