Sha Tin · 2024-11-03
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-11-03 was Class 5 over 1800m. KINGLY DEMEANOR, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with CHATEAU LE PECHE second and TURTLE AGAIN third. The winner led throughout. The 5.5 favourite PAKISTAN FRIEND finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | KINGLY DEMEANOR Wire to wire H-/TT 1.48.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | CHATEAU LE PECHE Closed strongly B C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 9 | 8.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 7 | TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 7 | 8.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | HARRY'S HERO H M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | FURY AND GOLD Closed strongly P-/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 8 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | MISTER FOX A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 1 | 5.9 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | SUNNY BABY CP- K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | PAKISTAN FRIEND P/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 5.5 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 5 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE XB E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 6 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | CASA LEGEND P/TT M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 10 | 8.5 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | E TALENT B/TT C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 11 | 107.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | PAKISTAN FRIEND | 18.6% | 5.37 | 9 |
| 2 | 1 | CASA LEGEND | 13.3% | 7.49 | 11 |
| 3 | 10 | SUNNY BABY | 12.1% | 8.24 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 8.3% | 12.00 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | SPLENDID STAR | 8.0% | 12.56 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | TURTLE AGAIN | 7.8% | 12.74 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 7.7% | 12.93 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | FURY AND GOLD | 6.5% | 15.28 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | KINGLY DEMEANOR | 5.4% | 18.67 | 1 |
| 10 | 8 | HARRY'S HERO | 4.8% | 20.73 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | MISTER FOX | 4.7% | 21.39 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | E TALENT | 2.6% | 38.19 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 62.5
PLACE
3 25.5
7 27
9 24.5
QUINELLA
3,9 257.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 111
3,9 99
7,9 124.5
FORECAST
9,3 491
TIERCE
9,3,7 4,453
TRIO
3,7,9 668
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 5,129
QUARTET
9,3,7,8 92,343