沙田 · 2024-11-03
第 3場
2024-11-03沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1600米。由B Avdulla策騎、A S Cruz訓練的CALIFORNIATOTALITY勝出，贏出1/2。JUMBO FORTUNE獲得亞軍；SOARING BRONCO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.8倍大熱門SOARING BRONCO跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY 後段發力 B/TT 1.34.48 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 12 | 7.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | JUMBO FORTUNE 後段發力 B2/TT K Teetan · D Eustace | K Teetan | D Eustace | 4 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | SOARING BRONCO 後段發力 C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 6 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 13 | ALP'S AFFECTION V/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 1 | 31.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | DRAGON FOUR SEAS 早段領放 B M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 8 | 8.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | CORLEONE TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 9 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | SPECIAL HEDGE 後段發力 B/TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 13 | 4.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | CHATER GOLD CP H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 7 | 5.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | SMASHING EXPRESS E B Thompson · J Size | B Thompson | J Size | 3 | 65.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 2 | CALIFORNIA BANNER 後段發力 CP/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo | Y L Chung | W K Mo | 10 | 65.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 6 | MISTER DAPPER CP/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 14 | 54.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | BEAUTIFUL WIN 後段發力 TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 11 | 120.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 14 | TRIPLE BLISS CP K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 2 | 187.0 | 10 |
| 14 | 8 | BEER PALACE B M Chadwick · M Newnham | M Chadwick | M Newnham | 5 | 19.0 | 12 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 15.1% | 6.64 | 7 |
| 2 | 4 | JUMBO FORTUNE | 13.8% | 7.27 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | CHATER GOLD | 11.3% | 8.82 | 8 |
| 4 | 11 | SOARING BRONCO | 11.3% | 8.86 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | DRAGON FOUR SEAS | 10.3% | 9.66 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | CORLEONE | 9.7% | 10.33 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | CALIFORNIATOTALITY | 7.1% | 14.00 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | BEER PALACE | 7.0% | 14.30 | 14 |
| 9 | 6 | MISTER DAPPER | 5.7% | 17.60 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | CALIFORNIA BANNER | 3.5% | 28.64 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | BEAUTIFUL WIN | 2.5% | 39.92 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | SMASHING EXPRESS | 1.1% | 88.75 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | ALP'S AFFECTION | 1.1% | 91.67 | 4 |
| 14 | 14 | TRIPLE BLISS | 0.5% | 192.89 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 73.5
PLACE
1 23
4 36
11 16
QUINELLA
1,4 461
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 144.5
1,11 56
4,11 70
FORECAST
1,4 964
TIERCE
1,4,11 4,419
TRIO
1,4,11 465
FIRST 4
1,4,11,13 5,622
QUARTET
1,4,11,13 92,312
全部彩池（另 1 項）
2ND DOUBLE
1/1 143
1/4 37.5