沙田 · 2024-12-18 · 15:00
第 8場
2024-12-18沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1650米。由Y L Chung策騎、C H Yip訓練的YOUNG BRILLIANT勝出，贏出1/2。FIGHTING MACHINE獲得亞軍；TALENTS AMBITION獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.5倍大熱門TALENTS AMBITION跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | YOUNG BRILLIANT 一路領先 B 1.38.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 9 | 44.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | FIGHTING MACHINE 後段發力 B-/SR/V1 K De Melo · P C Ng | K De Melo | P C Ng | 2 | 4.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | TALENTS AMBITION 後段發力 B/XB H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 10 | 2.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | NEVER TOO SOON 後段發力 B Thompson · D J Hall | B Thompson | D J Hall | 1 | 48.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | LESLIE B-/PC2 P N Wong · C W Chang | P N Wong | C W Chang | 8 | 68.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 14 | JOLLY RULER 後段發力 TT H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 13 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | TOP GUN 後段發力 M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 14 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 10 | CAPITAL LEGEND TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 6 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | YELLOWFIN XB C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 4 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | PERFECT TEAM P/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 7 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | APACHE PASS CP L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 11 | 14.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | LUCK IS BACK K C Leung · K W Lui | K C Leung | K W Lui | 3 | 12.0 | 16-1/4 |
| 13 | 13 | ACE WAR CP-/B1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 5 | 133.0 | 17-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | NAMJONG KINGDOM TT A Pouchin · C S Shum | A Pouchin | C S Shum | 12 | 46.0 | 17-1/2 |
| — | 0 | BERLIN TANGO B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TALENTS AMBITION | 25.7% | 3.88 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | FIGHTING MACHINE | 22.6% | 4.42 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | APACHE PASS | 6.2% | 16.22 | 11 |
| 4 | 3 | LUCK IS BACK | 5.7% | 17.41 | 12 |
| 5 | 6 | PERFECT TEAM | 5.6% | 17.98 | 10 |
| 6 | 10 | CAPITAL LEGEND | 5.3% | 19.02 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | NAMJONG KINGDOM | 5.1% | 19.80 | 14 |
| 8 | 2 | TOP GUN | 5.0% | 19.97 | 7 |
| 9 | 14 | JOLLY RULER | 4.5% | 22.08 | 6 |
| 10 | 1 | YELLOWFIN | 4.0% | 25.00 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | YOUNG BRILLIANT | 3.8% | 26.43 | 1 |
| 12 | 11 | LESLIE | 3.7% | 27.04 | 5 |
| 13 | 12 | NEVER TOO SOON | 2.1% | 47.38 | 4 |
| 14 | 13 | ACE WAR | 0.7% | 139.89 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 448.5
PLACE
4 12.5
7 16.5
9 106
QUINELLA
7,9 912.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 25.5
4,9 192.5
7,9 257
FORECAST
9,7 2,350
TIERCE
9,7,4 7,767
TRIO
4,7,9 640
FIRST 4
4,7,9,12 4,369
QUARTET
9,7,4,12 186,764
全部彩池（另 4 項）
2ND TREBLE
10/6/7 408
10/6/9 17,503
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,6,11/4,7,9 21,112
7TH DOUBLE
6/7 62
6/9 2,946
SIX UP
7/4/6/10/6/9 8,165,697
7,8/4,10/6,13/10,12/2,6/7,9 12,902
5 [C H Yip] —
7 [L Ferraris] —