沙田 · 2024-12-18 · 13:25
第 5場
2024-12-18沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1650米。由M L Yeung策騎、F C Lor訓練的NEVER PETER OUT勝出，贏出1。HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER獲得亞軍；VIVA HUNTER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。2.3倍大熱門EXCEL WONGCHOY跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NEVER PETER OUT 後段發力 CP-/V1/TT 1.38.90 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 3 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 13 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER 早段領放 B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 8.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | VIVA HUNTER 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 43.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | THESIS 後段發力 TT A Pouchin · Y S Tsui | A Pouchin | Y S Tsui | 5 | 29.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | HAKKA RADIANCE 後段發力 TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 4 | 7.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | DAILY TROPHY V-/TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 6 | 30.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | ARIEL CP-/B2/TT J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 8 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | EXCEL WONGCHOY H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 2 | 2.3 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC 後段發力 B B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 13 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | POCHETTINO H/P1/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 25.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | AMAZING DUCK CP/TT1 M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 10 | 17.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | ACA POWER CP A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 11 | 31.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | PING HAI COMET H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 12 | 43.0 | 16-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 22.8% | 4.38 | 8 |
| 2 | 6 | NEVER PETER OUT | 15.8% | 6.35 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | HAKKA RADIANCE | 14.7% | 6.81 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | ARIEL | 7.2% | 13.98 | 7 |
| 5 | 13 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER | 7.1% | 14.08 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | POCHETTINO | 5.5% | 18.06 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC | 5.5% | 18.34 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING DUCK | 4.4% | 22.72 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | ACA POWER | 4.2% | 23.98 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | DAILY TROPHY | 4.0% | 25.01 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | VIVA HUNTER | 3.3% | 29.96 | 3 |
| 12 | 1 | THESIS | 3.2% | 31.35 | 4 |
| 13 | 9 | PING HAI COMET | 2.4% | 41.77 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 62
PLACE
6 18.5
10 92
13 26
QUINELLA
6,13 263.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 280.5
6,13 80.5
10,13 432.5
FORECAST
6,13 533
TIERCE
6,13,10 14,312
TRIO
6,10,13 2,949
FIRST 4
1,6,10,13 15,771
QUARTET
6,13,10,1 229,482
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST TREBLE
7/4/6 1,216
7/4/13 231
4TH DOUBLE
4/6 303
4/13 68