Sha Tin · 2024-12-18 · 21:22
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NEVER PETER OUT Closed strongly CP-/V1/TT 1.38.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 3 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 13 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER Led early B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 8.3 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 43.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | THESIS Closed strongly TT A Pouchin · Y S Tsui | A Pouchin | Y S Tsui | 5 | 29.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | HAKKA RADIANCE Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 4 | 7.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | DAILY TROPHY V-/TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 6 | 30.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | ARIEL CP-/B2/TT J McDonald · D A Hayes | J McDonald | D A Hayes | 8 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 2 | EXCEL WONGCHOY H/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 2 | 2.3 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 13 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | POCHETTINO H/P1/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 25.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | AMAZING DUCK CP/TT1 M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 10 | 17.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | ACA POWER CP A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 11 | 31.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 13 | 9 | PING HAI COMET H A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 12 | 43.0 | 16-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-18 was Class 4 over 1650m. NEVER PETER OUT, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER second and VIVA HUNTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.3 favourite EXCEL WONGCHOY finished 8th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 22.8% | 4.38 | 8 |
| 2 | 6 | NEVER PETER OUT | 15.8% | 6.35 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | HAKKA RADIANCE | 14.7% | 6.81 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | ARIEL | 7.2% | 13.98 | 7 |
| 5 | 13 | HAPPYDEARHAPPYDEER | 7.1% | 14.08 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | POCHETTINO | 5.5% | 18.06 | 10 |
| 7 | 11 | COURIER MAGIC | 5.5% | 18.34 | 9 |
| 8 | 4 | AMAZING DUCK | 4.4% | 22.72 | 11 |
| 9 | 5 | ACA POWER | 4.2% | 23.98 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | DAILY TROPHY | 4.0% | 25.01 | 6 |
| 11 | 10 | VIVA HUNTER | 3.3% | 29.96 | 3 |
| 12 | 1 | THESIS | 3.2% | 31.35 | 4 |
| 13 | 9 | PING HAI COMET | 2.4% | 41.77 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 62
PLACE
6 18.5
10 92
13 26
QUINELLA
6,13 263.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,10 280.5
6,13 80.5
10,13 432.5
FORECAST
6,13 533
TIERCE
6,13,10 14,312
TRIO
6,10,13 2,949
FIRST 4
1,6,10,13 15,771
QUARTET
6,13,10,1 229,482
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
7/4/6 1,216
7/4/13 231
4TH DOUBLE
4/6 303
4/13 68