Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-12-18 · 14:25

Race 7

Class 3 1200m 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-12-18 was Class 3 over 1200m. PACKING BOLE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SELF IMPROVEMENT second and HAROLD WIN third. The 3.9 favourite HAROLD WIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PACKING BOLE CP1/TT 1.08.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 1 4.5 1/2
2 2 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT J McDonald · K L Man 7 6.8 1/2
3 11 HAROLD WIN B/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui 2 3.9 1-3/4
4 9 BEAUTY GLORY CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 32.0 1-3/4
5 8 MUST GO E/PC/TT B Avdulla · J Size 8 4.6 2-3/4
6 3 VICTORY MOMENTS B/SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 38.0 3
7 1 DANCING CODE B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 4 9.7 6-1/2
8 12 BOWSER PC/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu 10 17.0 6-3/4
9 10 GAMEPLAYER ELITE XB-/SR/TT1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 36.0 8-1/4
10 5 SUPREME AGILITY SR/V1/TT A Pouchin · P C Ng 5 20.0 9
11 7 HAPPY FAT CAT CP2/TT P N Wong · W K Mo 11 44.0 10-1/4
4 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 9 15.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING BOLE2. SELF IMPROVEMENT+0.5L3. HAROLD WIN+1.75L4. BEAUTY GLORY+1.75L5. MUST GO+2.75L6. VICTORY MOMENTS+3L7. DANCING CODE+6.5L8. BOWSER+6.75L9. GAMEPLAYER ELITE+8.25L10. SUPREME AGILITY+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick DANCING CODE (15.1%) finished 7th — the winner PACKING BOLE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DANCING CODE 15.1% 6.63 7
2 8 MUST GO 12.5% 8.00 5
3 11 HAROLD WIN 10.9% 9.20 3
4 6 PACKING BOLE 10.7% 9.34 1
5 2 SELF IMPROVEMENT 10.6% 9.44 2
6 9 BEAUTY GLORY 10.1% 9.95 4
7 12 BOWSER 8.6% 11.66 8
8 7 HAPPY FAT CAT 7.4% 13.51 11
9 5 SUPREME AGILITY 6.7% 15.01 10
10 3 VICTORY MOMENTS 4.7% 21.20 6
11 10 GAMEPLAYER ELITE 2.8% 35.11 9
DANCING CODEMUST GOHAROLD WINPACKING BOLE — wonSELF IMPROVEMENTBEAUTY GLORYBOWSERHAPPY FAT CATSUPREME AGILITYVICTORY MOMENTSGAMEPLAYER ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 45.5

PLACE

2 22

6 20.5

11 16

QUINELLA

2,6 166

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 63

2,11 53

6,11 44.5

FORECAST

6,2 373

TIERCE

6,2,11 1,555

TRIO

2,6,11 295

FIRST 4

2,6,9,11 2,503

QUARTET

6,2,11,9 43,934

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

10/2 218.5

10/6 881.5